SamSuka
The Long Investor

The Long Investor

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$SBUX

$SBUX reported earnings yesterday and again it was a miss, making it the 4th miss in a row....they knew they needed to do something in the last quarter and that is why they changed CEO.

The market responded well to that change but I don't think anyone would be surprised to see another miss,...

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SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

I want to share the larger picture of Silver that we have been using since Feb ' 24, when the price action was still in the yellow wedge at $22 - $24.

Bullish Cup and Handle formation, followed by a bullish wedge and we used the heavy correlation with Gold to see where this was going next.....

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$TLT

Druckenmiller has certainly has me thinking over the last few days and he has a 20% total allocation short against US bonds, which is not a small position.

From a technical standpoint, it's a big gamble right now with this current set up.....but from a Macro approach, I get it:

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HSI

It's moving slowly but moving in the right direction

We have a higher low now but fell just shy of making a higher higher today, so going above 20,960 and we have a higher high which will confirm a trend.

There is certainly some stability being shown across the Chinese ADRs we follow,...

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$IQ

Ironically, this is exactly how we want $NIO to behave and it is showing signs of following.

$IQ retested the 0.618 Fib and over shot it slightly below the 50 Day MA which was also at the confluence level on the 0.618 fib at $2.46

Price has regained this level and has jumped aggressiv...

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$VICI - WATCHLIST -

$VICI is pulling back after finding some resistance at the 1.618 Fib at $33, so we are watching for a higher low next on the small green fib levels I have added.

Price has already gone between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels, so we are looking for a hold here

No hold above the 0.618 Fib th...

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$CELH

There are no changes to this Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern

The price action hit exactly in the centre of the right shoulder and on the 0.618 Fib today and has so far held

Price needs to hold above this level now and it can start making its way back up to the $35 level next.

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$SLV - SAFE HAVEN -

This is the ticker we recommend for Silver if you can not buy Silver as a commodity.

They are moving exactly together in terms of their movements but their dollar values are slightly off.

So if Silver pulls back, $SLV will pull back too.

$SLV is at its First Target now and Wave ...

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$NVDA

$NVDA has cut through the $141 level to make a new ATH with very little resistance

Price also hit $144 today, what bulls want to see next is a firm hold above the $141 level and they can expect a move up to $160 over the next few months......a very impressive earnings report could accelerat...

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$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN looks like it is moving sideways here under the $189 level but we can see clearly that there has been a retest of the wedge breakout level this week and a bounce

We can also see that the price action has been using the 200 MA on the 1hr chart since August 9th for support, another bull...

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$PFE

This wedge is getting tight now and we have a double 0.78 Fib test now, first test came in the middle of August and now again on the shorter pull back.

The wedge apex is also aligning with their earnings date which is due next Tuesday before the market opens.

I suspect no direction wi...

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$SMCI

We have 1 buy in for $SMCI, we want 4 more buys and right now we only have 20% allocated into $SMCI

So far we have a rejection at the $49, however nothing has changed to the thesis here, we are leading into earnings and we need the result of the audit to finalise.

I have added the whi...

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$AMD TOP 20

I suspect there is some play acting here as $AMD leads into earnings next week.

Since the start of 2023, $AMD has always bounced after its earnings report and it looks primed for another bounce here to follow our Wave 3 projection.

Price has pulled back now between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib...

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IMPORTANT NOTICE - BILLING -

Patreon have wrote to all creators to inform them that Apple are enforcing a 30% fee on all NEW MEMBERSHIPS purchased through their APP from the start of November.

I want to be very clear now: Any current member who has a paid membership through the app or ...

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$ELV - RC -

I liked the Impulse Wave count to $567 to complete Wave 5 but the the pull back has been very harsh here, accelerated by a missed earnings report and a difficult 12 months ahead for margins.

$ELV had not missed on earnings since 2020 prior to last weeks release.

RSI is deep in the ove...

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$MSTR

$MSTR buyers are still not showing any concerns they have towards $BTC and have bought the dip. Price is already testing the First Target again now......remember, $MSTR front ran the $BTC move from the 200 Day MA to the $69.1k level too.

What will be interesting to see now is how $MSTR hand...

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$NIO TOP 20

We are still holding at the confluence level and holding this level since Thursday now. There was another test of the 0.65 Fib at $5.05 yesterday too and held.

It is still not clear that this level will definitely hold but there is some sideways movement, meaning buyers are stepping in at t...

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$BIDU

I am not happy with $BIDU's pull back as a Wave 4 now, since the pull back is below the 0.618 Fib and bordering on infringing below the top of Wave 1, I can not consider this as a Wave 4 pull back, so I have updated the chart.

It doesn't really change much for us because I believe this is i...

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$ETH

$ETH has also failed the breakout so far too and has not held on the $2670 level to stay out of this triangle, likely down to $BTC also rejecting at its breakout level.

Same commentary therefore applies to $ETH now too, minimising the pull back now and making another attempt at the breakout...

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$BTC TOP 20

The $69.1k level is not going to be easy to break out from, it has been a resistance level since March for a reason, so not breaking out with one attempt right now is not a surprise.

Bulls will want to minimise the pull back before attempting the $69.1k level again

So if an ascending ...

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$BTI - SAFE HAVEN - WATCHLIST -

$BTI which is up there as one of the best performing safe havens this year is now pulling back and it is certainly welcomed.

It has bounced from $28 to $39 and a pull back to the 0.618 Fib and the 200 Day MA at $32.50 would present another great opportunity to add if you missed the April to...

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$SMCI

A very clear ascending triangle is being formed here now under the $49 level at the 0.618 Fib

It is also clear that the $49 level is an important resistance level, reinforced by being the important Fib level too

So what we do know is that when/if this level converts to support, this w...

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$HIMS

$HIMS is up nearly +5% today after another Upgrade from BofA, a week after its latest upgrade

PT now is $25.

So if we consider the pull back down to inbetween the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels on the 3rd of October as Wave 2, then the 1.618 Fib aligns perfectly with the blue line at $25

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$TGT

I am not seeing any concerns yet with $TGT, it is staying around its 50 and 200 Day MA but above the 0.5 Fib support level at $150.

A pull back to the $146 level on the 0.618 Fib would be standard here too which would also give this a double 0.618 Fib hold too

I have not added to $TGT...

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US 10 YR

Just about at the 200 Day MA which we have been expecting now since the start of Sept.

We want to see the price action reject at this level and come down but it may go above this level and on the retest of the 200 Day MA, we want to see it not hold and come down.

When the 10 Year pull...

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$OXY

Some support has been found on the 0.78 Fib at $51 and the price is testing the 0.618 Fib again at $52.33 today.

I always feel a lot more comfortable when a price retakes the 0.618 Fib on a Wave 2 or Subwave 2 pull back.

If this can be done next then we should see a move back up to th...

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$BBD - RC -

Is still in this downward channel but appears to have held support on the blue support line at $2.22 which was also the support line in 2020.

Pulling back now after struggling to stay above the 200 Day MA

Still need to see more price action to say that the reversal is on here, a hold ...

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$LYFT - WATCHLIST -

$LYFT continues to look very attractive here

A break out of the wedge, followed by a retest and hold, then after the $TSLA 10.10 event the price bounced and looks set to test the 200 Day MA next at $14.40

A flip of this MA to support and the next move up could be to the blue line at $...

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$NVO - RC -

$NVO is moving to plan here, the 50 Day MA has been lost and there is a clear trend down to the next amber Fib level atv $109 next.

A retest of the 50 Day MA is still possible but a rejection here further confirms our ABC correction projection.

We can also see that and Head and Should...

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$CVS - RC -

On the long term chart, $CVS is holding a critical support level that has been in place since 2003 and bounced very well on it this year, helped by the blue support line that has also been in place since 2018

The concern with $CVS is whether or not $AMZN is going to destroy it the more they...

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