The Long Investor

$TLT

Added 2024-10-23 12:04:45 +0000 UTC

Druckenmiller has certainly has me thinking over the last few days and he has a 20% total allocation short against US bonds, which is not a small position.

From a technical standpoint, it's a big gamble right now with this current set up.....but from a Macro approach, I get it:

He believes Trump is likely going to win and when Trump and the Republicans get in, it usually signals spending....which will affect inflation.
Druckenmiller is taking the calculated position that inflation is going to go higher.....which is exactly the opposite position of the Fed, the Fed believes they have inflation under control and will continue to lower interest rates.

Someone is going to be wrong here.

And personally, I think there are better positions to short than this option.....but Druckenmiller is one of the best

He may have got $NVDA wrong and sold early but he made his gains and took profit, there is no harm with that.....he also bought $PLTR next which continued to climb, so he did not lose out on much.

Right now on the chart we have a higher high and higher low and we can see in April that $TLT held in between the 0.618 - 0.78 White Fibs, the pull back now is in this range too and above the blue support line and ascending triangle support line.

My assessment:

If the 0.78 Fib at $90 is lost and the price rejects trying to get above this level again then I believe trimming here makes sense and waiting for $TLT to move higher before adding again.