G’day, lads!
This is the second article in my series explaining how I developed an NBA Player Prop Model. In the previous article, I covered the process of calculating expected rebounds (xRebounds) for each player. Now, I’ll shift the focus to calculating expected points (xPoints) and e...
2025-01-12 06:51:59 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads!
I’m excited to announce the release of the ‘Excel LADZ - NBA Player Prop Model’! This model generates daily predictions for player points, rebounds and assists across all games. It leverages a variety of stats to calculate expected values for each prop market and applie...
2025-01-11 01:06:19 +0000 UTC View PostG'day, lads! Attached is the 'Excel LADZ - NBA Player Prop Model' for the 2024-25 NBA Season. In this model, you're able to generate predictions for a player's points, assists and rebounds against a particular opposition. For each prop category, select a 'line' to see "fair odds" as calculated by...
2025-01-05 10:32:00 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads! Merry Christmas!
A common question I often get from those new to the community is: Why do the projected probabilities for different markets change, even when there’s no change in a selection, like a team adjustment?
The simple answer is that projected probabilities ch...
2024-12-28 04:41:00 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads! Have a watch of my newest video! Attached to this post is the Excel file.
If you're interested, become a member of the Excel LADZ Patreon! Download the Excel LADZ NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer and UFC Model for daily analysis 🔥
NBA Model: 2024-12-05 19:22:15 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads! In this spreadsheet, I created two worksheets. The first, titled "NBA Starting Lineups" pulls in the projected starting lineups for each team playing that day. The second worksheet, titled "NBA Game Odds", pulls in the Pre-Game & In-Game odds for the Totals, Spread and Moneyline ...
2024-12-04 07:17:38 +0000 UTC View Post
G’day, lads! While the ‘Excel LADZ - 2024-25 NBA Model’ is calibrating to each player’s role and influence on their respective teams for the new season, I decided to build a “Team-Based NBA Model”. Instead of determining a team’s strength by adding up individual player contributions...
2024-11-24 10:02:11 +0000 UTC View PostG'day, lads! I just launched an Instagram page, where in the next few weeks I'll be making videos about Excel in conjunction with the work I do on here & YouTube. To celebrate, I'm giving away 5 FREE 1 month memberships to the Patreon. All you've got to do is follow the page, like the post I ...
2024-11-21 11:12:37 +0000 UTC View PostG'day, lads! Attached is the 'Excel LADZ - 2024-25 NBA Team-Based Model'. This model relies totally on a team's stats this season, with no regards to the players in/out of the squad. I built this model so that it's possible for users to compare between the Player-Based NBA Model, and this one. 2024-11-21 11:04:09 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads! Attached is the 'Excel LADZ - NBA Rebound Model' for the 2024-25 NBA Season 🔥 To update the data, go to the 'Data' tab and select the "Refresh All" icon. All other instructions on how to use the model are in the video above 👆
This model uses a series of formulas to find ...
2024-11-18 02:42:21 +0000 UTC View PostG'day, lads! Attached is a model which uses the College Basketball ELO Ratings compiled by the website "Warren Nolan". Here is a link to their website: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/elo
In ...
2024-11-17 23:04:49 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads! In this article, I’ll run through the steps required to make daily predictions using the ‘Excel LADZ - NBA Model’. If you haven’t already become a member, and you are interested in being able to back your tips with statistics, then download the model b...
2024-11-03 00:44:59 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads!
Attached is the 'Excel LADZ 2024/25 NBA Model' 🔥 To refresh the data before each day, select the "Refresh All" icon in the 'Data' tab. This will update the spreadsheet's connection with the website 'Basketball Reference' and import new data into the file through a Power Quer...
2024-10-27 07:30:52 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads!
Attached to this post are two files: the normal and "Legacy" 'Excel LADZ 2024-25 European Football Model'. While there are NO mathematical differences between these files and the files uploaded in the previous post on this model, I've replaced the Power Queries with data from E...
2024-10-21 23:12:14 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads! Attached to this post is the 'Excel LADZ - 2024-25 NHL Model'. In this spreadsheet, I've calculated each team's ATT & DEF Ratings over a trailing 20-game window. For example, if a team has only played 5 games in the 24-25 season, their Ratings for Game 6 will consist of 25% 24-25...
2024-10-10 19:22:03 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads! Last year I had to submit a presentation for a University class I was taking. I thought it might be useful... Click the video above to watch 👆
Please let me know if you have any questions, especially regarding the concept of statistical significance. I made this presentatio...
2024-10-06 01:52:13 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads! It’s been another great month for the community! In September, Excel LADZ hit 300,000 views and 4,400 subscribers on YouTube. Furthermore, there are 2,700 free & paid members signed up to the Patreon.
A large part of this growth has been driven by the release of the ‘...
2024-09-30 07:58:21 +0000 UTC View PostG'day, lads! In the video above, I've run through how to add a new league to the 'Excel LADZ - European Football Poisson Model'.
If you haven't already, download the model here: https://www.patreon....
2024-09-28 02:01:45 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day, lads!
My newest video just dropped 🔥 Download the file here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/111333965
2024-09-23 08:04:29 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads! In this third and final article on the NFL Model, I’ll be calculating the probabilities for the three main NFL markets: Moneyline, Spread and Total Points. All of this will be based on the data from our simulations and the distribution they’ve produced.
If you haven’t a...
2024-09-17 12:08:14 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads! In this second article, I’ll explain how to resolve ties using a simplified version of overtime and how to simulate an entire NFL game thousands of times to generate a distribution of outcomes.
If you haven’t already, download the NFL Model for daily analysis and join the...
2024-09-16 08:07:04 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads! In this article, I’ll explain the introduction to building the ‘Excel LADZ - NFL Model’. By the end, you’ll be able to understand the core principles behind the model, including how to simulate a single game and predict a winner using Attack and Defense Ratings. Parts 2 and...
2024-09-14 06:40:31 +0000 UTC View PostG'day lads! Attached is the 'Excel LADZ - 2024 NFL Model'. Select two teams in the "Dashboard" worksheet, and using the ATT/DEF Ratings automatically generated in the "Team Ratings" worksheet, an Expected Score and markets for the Moneyline, Spread and Total Points will be calculated.
To up...
2024-09-03 11:06:35 +0000 UTC View PostG’day, lads! Last month saw some tremendous growth for the channel - Excel LADZ now has over 4,200 subscribers on YouTube and over 2,500 free & paid patrons! In this article, I’ll recap the posts I’ve made over the past few weeks, and update you all on what’s dropping next.
...
G'day lads!
Attached is a simple ELO-Based Model to generate predictions for college football games. Each team's ELO Ratings are imported from the website 'Warren Nolan . com', with a 100 point advantage given to the home team.
From each team's ELO Rating, a Win Probability can be ge...
2024-08-26 12:56:12 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day lads! Attached to this post is the 'Excel LADZ - 2024-25 European Football Model'. This model covers the EPL, LaLiga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga! The model calculates an xG figure for a potential matchup, and then uses the Poisson Probability Distribution to find probabilities for ...
2024-08-18 11:49:25 +0000 UTC View PostG'day lads! In this video I'll show you how to update the 'Excel LADZ - 2024 ClubELO Model' every day, so you can bring in probabilities for games based on ClubELO's ELO Ratings formula.
To download this spreadsheet, click here: 2024-08-12 21:55:42 +0000 UTC View Post
G’day lads! In this article I’ll explain how I used ChatGPT to generate blank power query code. This allowed me to import BetMGM’s live MLB Odds, as featured on Yahoo Sport, into the Excel LADZ - 2024 MLB Model. Now, after generating the probabilities for each market, you can compare them t...
2024-07-14 05:22:57 +0000 UTC View Post
G'day lads! Attached is the 2024 update to the ClubELO Model seen in the video above 🔥
Now, the model is connected to the ClubELO Website through a Power Query. By going into the 'Data' tab and selecting the "Refresh All" icon, this connection is refreshed, and live data is brought into...
2024-07-12 06:47:17 +0000 UTC View PostG'day lads, attached is a model to predict games of NRL (National Rugby League) - an Australian sport. Simply select the two teams in a matchup within the "Dashboard" worksheet, and the model will project prices for the Win %, Over/Under points and Line markets. Press the "Refresh All" icon in th...
2024-07-05 05:25:26 +0000 UTC View Post