【國際關係深度評 🇦🇲🇦🇿🇺🇸🇷🇺🇮🇷🇹🇷】 高加索「大和解」：「特朗普樂園」出現在伊朗邊境不是夢（三）
Added 2025-08-14 02:01:01 +0000 UTC三、亞美尼亞、阿塞拜疆大和解之後，出現的美國飛地「特朗普走廊」究竟會怎樣？如果認真發展經濟，潛力真的無限。
首先，這條走廊足以成為阿塞拜疆石油經土耳其輸入歐洲的關鍵管道，而阿塞拜疆是能源大國，石油、天然氣儲存量非常豐富，首都巴庫甚至流行「石油浴」，富有階層過著紙醉金迷的生活，只是一直和外界相對隔絕，潛力也未盡展現。現在阿塞拜疆能源有了更多進入歐洲的管道，除了有望進一步發大財，由於不用再浪費資源和亞美尼亞開戰，破除了昔日蘇聯刻意製造的「以夷制夷」矛盾，也可以令整個高加索地區可能成為地緣政治的一極，不用再作俄羅斯附庸。
據報現在已經有九家企業爭奪發展「走廊」，特朗普的地產夢想，例如「Trump Tower」遍地開花，也可望在以他命名的走廊成真。他說這一帶經濟可以大起飛是相對合理的，起碼比起說加沙地帶可以經濟起飛合理得多。
四、 「特朗普」走廊連接阿塞拜疆與飛地納希切曼，而飛地又接壤土耳其邊境，阿塞拜疆又是與美國對手俄羅斯、伊朗接壤的國家，這裏有非常重要的軍事價值。須知土耳其和美國都是北約成員國，有了這條走廊，可以說北約勢力已經直接進入了高加索地區，在最前線監察著俄羅斯和伊朗。美國就算暫時不會把走廊變成軍事區，但因為走廊和土耳其接壤，真的需要進行軍事行動的時候，就會非常方便，因為可以通過土耳其這個北約成員國源源不絕的進行補給。俄羅斯日防夜防北約通過烏克蘭，對俄羅斯極限施壓，現在有了「特朗普走廊」在後院，難道不是更芒刺在背？
五、在國際能源政治角度，「特朗普走廊」也是一個龐大計劃的最後一塊拼圖，這個計劃和中國息息相關，名叫「跨裏海國際運輸網絡」（Trans-Caspian International Transport Route），一般被國際關係學者稱為「中央走廊」。
所謂「中央走廊」，就是中國通往歐洲的通道，也可以算是「一帶一路」部份，「中央」就是位於中間的路線，核心是貫穿格魯吉亞、阿塞拜疆和土耳其的「巴庫-第比利斯-卡薩鐵路」（Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway）。這條鐵路至今運作才幾年，已經大幅度取代了依賴俄羅斯的「北方走廊」，和通過伊朗、海路經蘇伊士運河的「南方走廊」，在俄烏戰爭爆發後，更證明了自己的戰略價值。現在有了「特朗普通道」，就連亞美尼亞也融入了這條「中央走廊」之中，既解決了亞美尼亞的孤立困境，也為這條通路的不安全性掃除最後障礙，中國固然是「搭便車」的既得利益方，高加索三國、土耳其也都得到擺脫俄羅斯影響的更多籌碼。而這一切，都是以美國進入區域為槓桿。
（待續）
Comments
In the upcoming Ukraine peace talks with Putin, Trump can strategically leverage the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal to secure his desired outcome. By offering Russia a role in the Zangezur Corridor, now rebranded as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), Trump can provide a war-stricken Russia with an opportunity to regain limited regional influence in the South Caucasus, incentivizing Putin’s cooperation to save his face and to fulfil his MAGA agendas. This corridor, which connects Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey while bypassing Russia and Iran, undermines China’s Belt and Road Initiative by offering Central Asian states an alternative trade route to European markets, reducing Beijing’s economic dominance in the region. In addition, Azerbaijan’s potential economic boom from enhanced natural resource exports through the corridor could pose a threat to Iran. A wealthier northern neighbor could attract Iranians of Azerbaijani descent in the northwestern provinces, particularly West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan and Ardabil, to secede and align with their Turkic kin. Further leverage comes from the deal’s impact on Russia’s waning regional influence, as Moscow’s failure to prevent Azerbaijan’s 2023 recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh and its deteriorating ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan—exacerbated by incidents like the alleged 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani airliner—have weakened its position. Trump can use this to pressure Putin, offering Russia’s reinclusion in the corridor’s development as a concession contingent on progress in the Ukraine talks. Moreover, the U.S.’s 99-year development rights over the corridor, coupled with bilateral economic agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan, position Washington as a key guarantor of regional stability, enhancing Trump’s diplomatic clout. However, Russia’s potential to act as a spoiler, through economic pressure or disinformation campaigns in Armenia’s 2026 elections, underscores the need for sustained U.S. engagement to ensure the deal’s success and maximize its leverage in negotiations with Putin. Meanwhile, the evolving political landscape in Central Asia and the South Caucasus—the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, Iran’s regional retreat and Russia’s declining influence—offers the U.S. a strategic opportunity to counter China’s dominance in rare-earth elements and strategic minerals. These resources are essential for everything from military weapons to electric vehicles, smart phones, and semiconductors. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan hold some of the world’s largest reserves of these critical materials. Currently, the U.S. relies on China for 70% of its rare-earth imports, creating a strategic vulnerability. By tapping into Central Asia’s abundant reserves, the U.S. can diversify its supply chain and reduce dependence on China, strengthening its geopolitical and economic position.
George
2025-08-14 04:51:23 +0000 UTC如果打算去高加索三國旅行，特別想去灰色地帶，除左ex-納卡地區，Trump走廊&飛地，仲有冇咩地方推介呢？
Zero
2025-08-14 04:20:11 +0000 UTC
