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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 16 SEP 2023 23:59* - Kremlin Continues to Dismantle PMC Wagner

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Announcement

The regular war reports for the podcast will return the week of September 18 with our latest team member, Marina Yevshan. Marina was born and raised in Ukraine and is based in the Kyiv area. We are excited to have her join the team and share the microphone with Zarina, and her official introduction is on Monday.

It's going to be a big week. The 500th full SITREP and the restart of the full war report will provide the breadth of coverage and analysis on what is happening in Ukraine and the depth of coverage of important news and human interest stories.

Today's Report

This is Report 496, which is 41 pages.

What's the big story? Private Military Company Wagner Group writes out a detailed update on the situation in the company, and Russia's rapidly growing military footprint in Africa.

What's the second story? The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine dropped a hint about Klishchiivka.

Summary

Podcast

The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for September 15 includes a frontline report from the Kupyansk area of operation, a discussion on the Ukrainian offensive, Ukrainian military analyst Alexander Kovalenko, and Rosh Hashanah celebrations in Uman You can listen to the podcast through the Megaphone web app and your favorite podcast provider, including,

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 16 SEP 2023 23:59* - Kremlin Continues to Dismantle PMC Wagner

Comments

Russian Telegram channels apparently are reporting that Kadyrov needs a second kidney transplant. Seems plausible. (I’m not a journalist so I can speculate on his health!) Chechnya is under sharia law and has exemptions from Russian federal laws. It does seem most probable that Kadyrov has appointed an interim leader for this eventuality. It’s telling that there’s so much secrecy over this, suggesting they’re concerned about reactions to news of his serious ill health. Some Telegram channels report more trouble than normal with Chechen units in Ukraine based on uncertainty over Kadyrov. This can’t be a welcome event for Putin and the Kremlin at this time. I can only hope for more dilemmas like this to befall them!

https://www.rt.com/russia/583103-chechen-leader-reports-poor-health/ The rumors got so loud that he had to film himself walking about. If I remember correctly, last year Kadyrov’s eldest son was presented to Putin as his father’s successor in a medieval throwback. We don’t know if his health is bad (I wish it is), but I have no doubt in my mind that if something were to happen to him there would be a succession struggle in Chechnya that Putin would have to pay attention to. On the other hand, if Kadyrov is truly ill Putin knows and is prepared….

AnaR737

Secondly (on Kadyrov) can you provide any insight about Chechnyan stability if (when) Don Don dies? Is he the only force holding things together? Will Russia need to open a new front in Chechnya? Is Chechnya going to become a large sinkhole for Russia, distracting them from Ukraine? And would that push other satellite countries out of orbit? Any analysis would be better than what I'm finding which is spectacularly poor. It would seem to me that between Wagner issues, logistical troubles, inflation, recruiting, Syria, Africa, Ukraine, and various domestic and insider issues, Putin and his apparatus is dancing on the head of a pin and a dead Don don bodes ill.

Jeffrey Price


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