Israel-Hamas Summary Report 29NOV23 16:30 PST - Extension of Cease-Fire Still Being Negotiated

This started as a flash report, but there was a lot of news and a lot of disinformation to untangle.

Israel and Hamas traded fresh allegations of cease-fire breaches, with the IDF claiming they killed three Palestinian militants in the northern Gaza Strip after they were attacked. Hamas claims that the people killed were civilians and were killed without provocation. We maintain that since November 24, neither combatant has committed serious cease-fire violations. Social media reports of Israeli airstrikes on the western part of the Wadi Ghaza (also spelled Gaza) demarcation line are false. There have been no Israeli airstrikes or manned intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions over the Gaza Strip since the cease-fire started.

Hamas has released fourteen more hostages - ten Israelis and four Thai nationals. The hostages were exchanged in Khan Younis, which is in the so-called safe zone declared by Israel. Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists were with Hamas militants at the exchange for the second day in a row. The militants struggled to hold crowds back, and the convoy was harassed through Khan Younis before exiting through Rafah. In our assessment, the visible presence of PIJ in Khan Younis has likely complicated ongoing talks for a second cease-fire extension.

In addition to the 14 released through Qatari, Egyptian, and United States-led negotiations, two Russian nationals were handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross, with Hamas claiming the release was done at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Irena Tati, 73, and her adult daughter, Yelena Trupanov, 50, were handed over to the ICRC prior to the release of the Israeli and Thai citizens and transported to Rafah separately.

United States President Joe Biden confirmed that dual U.S.-Israeli citizen Liat Beinin was released. Raaya Rotem, 54, the mother of 13-year-old Hila, who was released several days ago, was also freed. Israeli media reported that five adults and five teenage hostages were released. 

Israeli announced that in compliance with the cease-fire agreement, 30 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, 16 teenagers and 14 adult women, will be released. There was no other information available, and Hamas had not released additional details on their identities.

The release of five more children comes after Israeli officials issued an ultimatum demanding the remaining nine child hostages be part of today's hostage-for-prisoner exchange. Hamas officials then claimed that 10-month-old Aeriel Kfir, her 4-year-old sister, Ariel, and her mother, Shiri, were killed by an Israeli airstrike prior to the ceasefire. They did not account for the other teenager still being held hostage.

Hamas officials originally claimed that the family had been transferred to Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and their location was unknown. On November 26, there was speculation that PIJ did not want to release the trio and were in a dispute with Hamas leadership. The conflict was reportedly escalated to Qatari-based Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is said to have demanded the release of the family. PIJ then allegedly notified Hamas that the family had died days earlier. There is no substance to the claims that Hamas sold the family to a terrorist group. 

Hamas has provided no evidence to support the claim that the family is dead, and at least three hostages who were previously claimed killed by IAF airstrikes have appeared alive in videos after the claim was made, and in the case of one person, returned as part of the hostage for prisoner exchanges. At the time of publication, PIJ had not released a statement either. Prior to the cease-fire, Hamas and its aligned militias claimed over 60 hostages had been killed. We cannot verify any of the reports, and Israeli officials have only said they are investigating the most recent claim that the Kfirs are dead, calling the statement by Hamas "cruel."

At the start of the cease-fire, it was believed 236 hostages were held by Hamas and aligned militias and terrorist groups. Ninety-seven have been released since November 24, leaving approximately 139 hostages still in captivity. If Hamas's earlier claims that 60 have been killed in IAF airstrikes (minus one confirmed alive), 80 remain in captivity (or 77 if the Kfirs are dead).

The announcement by Hamas that the three are dead comes as negotiators are furiously trying to extend the cease-fire with the clock running out at 07:00 hours Tel Aviv time on November 30. Prior to the claim that the Kfirs were dead, it was reported that Hamas was seeking an additional four-day extension of the cease-fire. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv to support ongoing talks.

Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated that Israel will continue its campaign to "destroy Hamas," with multiple diplomats appealing to the politically embattled leader to take a more restrained approach. 

Seventeen Thai nationals were cleared to leave Israel by their medical team, and have left Tel Aviv for Bangkok. After their release, hostages reported they were fed one pita a day and sometimes a "tin of tuna" divided between four people or a piece of cheese. They reported during their entire time in captivity, they were only permitted to shower once, which would align with water shortages in the north Gaza Strip. 

Sidebar: While this may seem trivial, taking a shower at least twice a day is part of Thai culture. It is important to note that this is not due to religious practice. We are not claiming or implying that International Humanitarian Law (IHL) was violated. The intent is only to explain why the former Thai hostages would complain about an inability to shower. 

One former hostage reported that Israeli hostages kept with them were treated far more "harshly," with at least one beaten with electrical cords. Other hostages echoed reports from previously released people of not having access to bedding and being forced to sleep in plastic chairs.

ASSESSMENT: The reports from the former Thai hostages have significant weight as they have no political or economic gain to spread propaganda, the Thai government is not tightly aligned nor has deep economic ties with the Israeli government or Palestinian leadership, and they waited to speak out until after leaving Israel on a Thai government aircraft. Additionally, their complaints align with their cultural norms and what someone from Thailand would consider ill-treatment while in captivity. Neither combatant has displayed that level of sophistication in their information warfare. While we believe their claims have significant weight, we cannot independently verify the reports of Israeli hostages being beaten.

The family of former hostage Elma Avarham, 84, reported that her medical condition is improving, and she is no longer in very critical condition. She is now expected to survive. The family refused to meet with the Netanyahu.

Claims by Hamas and Arab media that Israeli guards broke both hands and fingers of Palestinian teenager and former detainee Mohammed Nazzal are highly questionable. A video released by Israeli at the time of his transfer to the Red Cross shows that at least his left hand was functional and uninjured as he entered the ICRC vehicle after international monitors confirmed his identity. His right hand shows no outward indications of the type of trauma now claimed. In a video shortly after his release, his right arm was in a sling, and his right hand and wrist were wrapped. The next day, he appeared with plaster casts on both hands, wrists, and forearms and his arms slung. Hamas and Nazzal claim he has no use in either hand, despite videos released by Israel and Palestinian officials and news agencies showing that at least his left hand was uninjured.

ASSESSMENT: Shortly after the initial claim was made, we saw an organized disinformation campaign spread across social media using the same two images and the same text from multiple channels, including ones we have previously red-listed for spreading propaganda. This showed all the signs of an organized disinformation campaign backed by a paying entity, as we have seen in other conflicts and the medical field.

Based on the available evidence in the public domain from multiple independent sources, we are confident that Nazzal's left hand and fingers were unbroken at the time of his transfer to the ICRC. There is not enough evidence to indicate if his right hand is or isn't injured. Information from multiple independent sources did not show a severe right-hand injury as claimed.

Given the available evidence, we find the claim of abuse dubious. Article 5 of International Humanitarian Law requires the ICRC to act as a watchdog. It is required to raise "the alarm, first among the States and other parties directly concerned in an armed conflict, and thereafter among the international community as a whole, whenever serious violations of the law occur." The claims made by Nazzal and Hamas would be among the nine grave war crimes outlined in IRL Article 156, "wilfully causing great suffering or serious injury to body or health."

The Foreign Minister of Iran, Amir Abdollahian, told the New York Times that Tehran and Washington have exchanged multiple communiques since October 7, expressing that neither nation is interested in escalating the conflict. This aligns with earlier reports that Iranian and U.S. officials have been maintaining back-channel communications. The number of strikes against U.S. interests and troops in Syria and Iraq has declined significantly since November 24. In late October, Lebanese Hezbollah reduced its saber rattling and scaled back harassment attacks on the 2000 United Nations Blue Line Border. The only Iranian-backed faction that has continued to escalate is the Houthi rebels in north Yemen. Earlier today, the United States destroyer USS Carney shot down an Iranian-produced KAS04 drone that was launched by Houthi rebels.

Skating the line between journalism and assessment, we're disappointed in the shift of language used by UN/OCHA within their daily reports and the increasing vagueness of key details. UN/OCHA has not back reported the number of humanitarian aid trucks or their composition that crossed at Rafah from November 26 or 27, and for November 28 only reported, "On 28 November, as in previous days, convoys carrying humanitarian supplies, fuel, and cooking gas could only enter Gaza from Egypt." While this may seem trivial, having confirmation from UN/OCHA that at least the 200 agreed-upon trucks are crossing a day is the only way we can monitor cease-fire compliance. In our assessment, "could only enter Gaza from Egypt" is inflammatory, as the existing cease-fire agreement only specifies that the Rafah crossing be used for the transfer of humanitarian aid. Additionally, UN/OCHA removed the word "claimed" from Hamas casualty figures and replaced it with "reported." It is unclear why some neutral language has been stripped from the reports.

UN/OCHA repeated a claim made by the Government Media Office of Hamas that between November 27 and 28, 160 bodies of people killed by Israeli attacks had been recovered by searchers. This is the first time the UN/OCHA has shared data, and we cannot independently verify the claim made by Hamas and echoed in the report.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a durable humanitarian cease-fire and the unconditional release of all additional hostages, echoing the November 28 calls by the G7 nations and the European Union Council. Guterres also called for an investigation into sexual violence committed by Hamas on October 7 on his official Twitter (also known as X) account. "There are numerous accounts of sexual violence during the abhorrent acts of terror by Hamas on 7 October that must be vigorously investigated and prosecuted. Gender-based violence must be condemned. Anytime. Anywhere."

And this is part where I have to [ENTER] or the Russia-Ukraine SITREP will never get done.