Excel LADZ - Euro & Copa América 2024 Model
Added 2024-06-29 11:29:16 +0000 UTCG'day lads! Attached to this post is a model that runs simulations to forecast the winners of the Euro and Copa América 2024 competitions, starting from the Round of 16.
The model uses ELO Ratings to give each team a Win % in a matchup. To refresh the ELO Ratings, select the 'Refresh All' icon in the 'Data' tab. This will update the file's connection to: https://www.eloratings.net
To use the model, select your nations from the dropdown lists in cells B3, B4, B6, B7, etc (as well as T3, T4, etc on the other side of the bracket) within the "Round of 16" worksheet. The ELO Win % formula will work out the chance each team will progress to the next round. The "Analysis" worksheet will reflect each team's chance of being knocked out at each stage of the competition.
To update the results in the "Round of 16" worksheet, write over the formula that simulates a winner from the previous match. For example, consider the match Switzerland vs Italy. Pretend the game is played and Italy is the winner. Over the cell E5, replacing its formula, write the text Italy. This "fixes" the probability of Italy appearing in this stage of the tournament - i.e. it is a 100% likelihood, it doesn't need to be simulated. From there, you'll see the chance in Italy and Switzerland's Win %'s in the "Analysis" worksheet 🔥
Please let me know if you have any questions lads! 'Legacy' version dropping soon 👍
