$SPY TOP 20

This is it folks, the price action that has split the world, some people are bullish, some are bearish. Both camps have pro's and cons. The Bulls will like that it is above the 200 Day MA and has managed to stay above the downward trend...the Bears will like that this has formed a head and shoulders pattern, it is still below the $411 resistance line that it has been kept under since August 2022, the formation is not a clear impulse wave, the macro conditions are still possibly the worst that the economy has experienced since 2008's financial crash, it is still below the bearish wedge and we have identified that only 10 stocks are now making up 88% of all gains.....if one of the mega caps starts declining, particularly $AAPL, $MSFT and $NVDA, they may act like dominoes and start pulling down the other 7 influential stocks, it is important to add that we have identified today that these mega/large cap stocks are almost all in an overbought positions, not what we expect to see from the start of a bull run.

So I think it is obvious what camp I am in and I have stayed in this camp for months now, I am a student of economics and it is almost impossible for me to ignore the macro conditions and be optimistic for a bull case. The macro conditions, across almost all metrics are not just bad but in fact terrible and alarming. 

Ultimately the market will do what it wants and does not care for anyone's opinion as long as buyers are willing to step in, will this just delay the inevitable crash? possibly as conditions bubble up. Oddly nobody (bulls or bears) are denying that a recession is still due. 

So What Now?

The market needs to take a direction and it is likely to decide which direction this week, I urge everyone to be sensible this week, this week is not the week to take on unnecessary risk, the trend is simply not clear, in spite of my bearish stance.