$TLT
Added 2024-12-30 14:07:52 +0000 UTC$TLT is hurting, it is inversely proportional to the US 10 YEAR, the FED is sacrificing Bonds right now because clearly it sees this as the least damaging direction at the moment....but I believe there could be more at play here and I am constantly brought back to the Banks, particularly those that are heavily reliant on supplying mortgages, the higher the mortgage rates, the less people will take out these mortgages.....so less loans mean less growth and slower economic activity.
Druckenmiller and PTJ have been spot on about this too, they shorted Bonds and they have been correct so far, an incredibly skillful call and I admire their conviction on their analysis.
The Large ABC correction in Red has not changed and I believe a sideways movement for Bonds is the best case scenario in 2025 but the price action needs to hold above the blue line at $82....or bonds will be in further trouble.
Holding strength above $82 and the US 10YR cools down, makes them attractive again.
Dividend is still very attractive here at +3.8%
Comments
82 is where it hit bottom this year that’s where I would buy . Meanwhile. Market funds pay a higher dividend with no risk .
Logan
2024-12-30 14:31:28 +0000 UTC
