【突發評論 🇺🇸🇺🇦】 特朗普暫停軍事援助烏克蘭，後續如何？我的六點觀察（上）
Added 2025-03-04 06:41:26 +0000 UTC美國宣佈，將即時暫停對烏克蘭的軍事援助，未送到烏克蘭戰場的軍事設備全部「暫緩」，直到澤連斯基顯示對和平的承諾為止。不少朋友覺得是晴天霹靂，但其實這反而是相對「正常」的特朗普式討價還價手段，烏克蘭理應早有心理準備。後續發展，進入了各方討價還價的博弈階段，有以下六點觀察可以分享：
1. 對此刻烏克蘭戰場而言，即時影響是有限的，因為烏軍還是在使用包括美國在內的西方援助武器，美國似乎並沒有要求即時收回已經發放到戰場上的裝備（覆水難收，技術上恐怕也不能完全做到）。到了現在用的出現嚴重損耗，而替代武器不到來，那時候的劣勢才表露無遺；一般相信，這段 grace period，會有大概三個月到半年。換言之，特朗普其實是希望在不晚於三個月內，和烏克蘭簽訂新條約，這次的動作只不過加強了壓力，方便對國內支持者交代而已。
2. 特朗普似乎也沒有明確撤回軍事物資以外的其他援助，特別是情報分享；Elon Musk 也未出「絕招」，限制星鏈在烏克蘭戰場使用。情報分享反而是可以即時中止的，立刻把情報人員召回國就可以，而且對非常依靠西方情報系統協調前線運作的烏克蘭軍隊而言，影響可能更大。除非後續傳出不同訊息，否則目前而言，相信特朗普還在容許一個灰色地帶，既避免即時令戰場有天翻地覆的影響，又可以發出強而有力的 soundbite，並對烏克蘭施壓。
3. 美國要求澤連斯基提供的，其實很直接：首先，是一個對特朗普本人的公開道歉，讓特朗普在支持者面前保留勝利姿態和道德高地，這是社交媒體後真相時代所必須的；然後，就是立刻簽署早前雙方草擬的烏克蘭礦產框架協定。對這份協定，澤連斯基其實早就打算簽署；至於道歉，對專業演員而言也是家常便飯，就差在場合、時機和對白，這些其實本來都會按既定劇本出現。令特朗普決定加速的，似乎還是要澤連斯基及早斷掉對歐洲國家的癡心妄想，以免浪費時間，影響美國的期中選舉。
（待續）
Comments
感覺台積電完全搬去美國的話，台灣就毫無價值，隨時可以賣比我中午共
C M
2025-03-05 14:35:59 +0000 UTC情報分享停咗啦
C M
2025-03-05 14:34:14 +0000 UTC俄羅斯大把貨, 不過全部都係嘔血式嘔出黎
Good Year
2025-03-05 03:01:07 +0000 UTC亞洲盟友點確保美國會幫佢哋？it is not US war. 可能投靠熊貓好過
pp lam
2025-03-04 12:07:09 +0000 UTC但俄羅斯是否已是強弩之末？
Jones Li
2025-03-04 10:30:22 +0000 UTC北極熊有近親熊貓，和人參國的大量廉價的輸血，北極熊是不懼又怕凍，又怕通漲而要買牠天然氣的歐盟，不怕歐盟出盡奶力的七傷拳打的 美國如仍不斷支援烏軍武，可能令美國武器庫存跌至低位。若有太平洋的衝突，美國難有足夠武器支援亞洲盟友，這時損失比失去烏克蘭更大
冬日 大海
2025-03-04 10:25:07 +0000 UTC沒有寸寸貢。只是他向烏克蘭人民解釋現在的情況没有得到改善吧
Frederic Ng
2025-03-04 10:19:28 +0000 UTC是咯，我都覺得是小懲大誡。馬一龍都唔話斷鏈，估計司機也知道，所以還寸貢貢話，呢場仗未完。睇死你唔會郁我。態度相當黑人憎，擺明寸Trump內閣。 大佬未動真怒，
Dada Ho
2025-03-04 09:33:11 +0000 UTCI hate to say that, but I cannot stop thinking about the following when i think about the business man. “He will confirm a covenant with many for one ‘seven.’ In the middle of the ‘seven’ he will put an end to sacrifice and offering. And at the temple he will set up an abomination that causes desolation, until the end that is decreed is poured out on him.”
Carl Yang
2025-03-04 08:40:48 +0000 UTC到議和時候一樣會出呢招要烏割地賠款改組親俄政府，唔應承就威脅全out，其實無分別，遲早會失守，反而重點在佢近日對台言論，淨係focus 價值淨係得台積電，如果令主流narrative 變成咁就好危險，一東一西橋頭堡相繼失守
Joseph
2025-03-04 08:36:23 +0000 UTC殺雞儆猴中的猴。 要傾deal ，先要跪。不跪，趕你走再罰。等你識跪先同你簽自己著數哂既deal 。 佢並唔想烏克蘭死，只係想用呢隻雞「教育」各隻𤠣點樣同佢做deal，做啲點樣嘅deal，顯示America Great Again
Carl Yang
2025-03-04 08:08:08 +0000 UTC其實成套戲入面，歐洲係主動定係被動地參與其中？
Dav
2025-03-04 07:52:55 +0000 UTCAny mood of despair about these developments, especially regarding sleight of hand from a dealmaker, needs to be heavily qualified. As of now, it’s still unlikely that peace initiatives or compromises have completely foundered. There’s no real sign that Trump is determined to withdraw from the negotiations. Instead, his administration is keeping an ear to the ground for how the EU responds and his incentives to cut a deal remain strong. A calculated businessman is very reluctant to allow his adversaries or incompetent opportunists to take advantage of him during the dealmaking process. Trump is now clearly throwing Zelensky under the bus for his own agenda. Hardly do these responses after the tense meeting knock Zelensky for a loop, given Trump’s well-known temperament. The crux of the problem is that time is running out for Ukraine, and that its European allies, who only pay lip service, can’t give Zelensky any real leverage to play his cards in this game. Worse yet for the Ukrainian people, Trump’s stance on Ukraine is now backed by considerable support from Republican colleagues and the American public, and an emboldened Russia is likely to fight more aggressively and seize more territory during the period of the Ukrainian military’s low morale and insufficient military supply in a bid to gain more bargaining chips at the negotiating table. In a cruel reality show run by a businessman, the later Zelensky signs the mineral deal, the harsher the terms will be, and the more likely it is that he’ll be forced to step down after the ceasefire.
George
2025-03-04 07:45:25 +0000 UTC誰大誰惡誰正確😟
pp lam
2025-03-04 07:32:33 +0000 UTC遲早發生的事，大家都預咗。不過都睇得出Trump都幾急想要個deal
Boris Lam
2025-03-04 07:24:52 +0000 UTC比想像中嚟得遲
CT
2025-03-04 07:16:26 +0000 UTC
