【讀者分享 🇺🇸】 特朗普帶來了怎樣的外交巨變？

Trump's perspective on IR pivots toward a paradigm of strength and military prowess, diverging sharply from the shared principles and humanitarian diplomacy that have underpinned alliances for decades. The recent swift dismantling of USAID serves as a stark symbol of his conviction that America's previous reliance on soft power, particularly in the form of financial assistance, represented a squandering of resources.

In Trump's discourse, echoed by voices such as Marco Rubio and other officials, a narrative emerges where rivals like Russia and China have long benefited themselves from exploiting loopholes in the existing, damaged framework while the US finds itself entangled in ineffective alliances propped up by financial obligations. Within the European context, where American security commitments have long been taken for granted, Trump argues that insufficient financial contributions and inequitable trade practices reveal a pattern of exploitation by traditional allies.

The vein of MAGA and “America first” doctrines that run through the Trumpian circle is the natural accompaniment to the disinterest bordering on disdain shown to global affairs as well as the traditional ties with left-leaning and self-serving allies. It’s then natural to prompt a critical question among MAGA-minded folks: why not establish a new international order under US leadership, where power dictates policy and weaker states conform to directives?

 Departing from the traditional ethos of humanitarian diplomacy and liberal democracy, Trump’s foreign policy operates on the premise that alliances are transient, forged only by shared interests rather than mere lip service, with a primary focus on America-first interests. In pursuit of American interests, Trump underscores not only the amplification of US hegemony but also the imperative of robust engagement with major adversaries like Russia and China. When he deems European and Ukrainian affairs as inconsequential to U.S. interests, his stance is hardly surprising.

The imminent challenge lies in his adept negotiation of the intricate web of relations with Russia and China, adeptly balancing partnership with strategic imperatives. A question that looms large is, where does this leave dictatorship-triangle: Xi, Putin, and Khamenei? Not only have his rhetoric and actions taken both allies and adversaries by surprise, but they have also had profound implications for disrupting the norms and structures established by the US post-WWII era.

The Trump administration has advanced on multiple fronts, with the cabinet firing arrows that point both inward and outward. Openly harsh criticism of traditional allies' internal affairs such as their refugee policy, and a rapid, all-encompassing eradication of toxic culture and corrupt institutions at home through the means of a non-governmental body have become a daily routine. Initiatives such as the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the American Gulf, putting Hutchison ports on the Panama Canal at the heart of a showdown, the integration of Canada as the 51st state (Trump’s “euphemism” for a vassal state), the acquisition of Greenland, the relocation of Palestinians and the transformation of Gaza into a "holiday resort," a blatant rare-earth mineral deal with Ukraine in exchange for security assurances, engaging in peace negotiations with Putin while sidelining other stakeholders, and utilizing reciprocal tariffs as part of the MAGA agenda to attract investment to the U.S., and bolster domestic manufacturing at the expense of overturning decade-long trade policy, all underscore his resolute determination to redefine rules and norms abroad and to uproot entrenched and corrupt institutions within the deep state at home that have long been perceived as hindrances to progress.

Very few countries could have managed to absorb the scale and impact of the flurry of initiatives undertaken by a frenemy, along with the revolutionary changes yet to come that are likely to catch them off guard. Attempting to decipher Trump through the lens of traditional alliance frameworks is an exercise of little value. His decisions are solely steered by national interests, eschewing enduring principles or conventional values. Grounded in America-centered realpolitik, his modus operandi involves recalibrating relationships with other global powers based on situational exigencies, rather than entwining himself in commitments to allies he perceives as outdated.

Trump’s hit-the-ground-running approach—that leads to a rash of catastrophic events in the eyes of progressives—has not only revolutionized America's foreign policy landscape but has also raised critical questions about the future of international orders.

First, it suggests that the current global environment necessitates a reassessment of traditional alliances. Partnerships that once thrived on historical ties may no longer be tenable if they lack a foundation in mutual interests. Nations would do well to explore more adaptable, interest-driven coalitions rather than clinging to outdated affiliations and historical ties.

Second, the ascendancy of a US-centered realpolitik could catalyze the rise of a multipolar world, empowering regional powers to assert their influence. Countries such as India and Brazil might seize this moment to champion their interests more assertively, navigating a landscape increasingly defined by shifting power dynamics rather than rigid ideological blocs.

Third, as established diplomatic norms continue to erode, global governance frameworks may confront significant challenges. Entities like the UN could struggle to maintain their relevance if member states prioritize national agendas over collective initiatives, risking a fragmentation of international cooperation. With countries adopting more aggressive stances in pursuit of their interests, the potential for conflict may escalate, particularly in regions marked by power vacuums or lingering historical grievances.

This evolving scenario could diverge sharply from Trump’s calculations. Trump's focus on America-first policies may inspire other nations to adopt similar economic nationalism, leading to a rise in protectionism or the formation of trading coalitions against the US. This could disrupt global trade patterns and economic interdependencies, prompting countries to reassess their trade agreements and economic strategies.

Meanwhile, the evolving geopolitical landscape will also be influenced by technological advancements. Countries are likely to harness technology not only for economic benefit but also as a means of projecting power, thereby reshaping IR in ways that remain to be fully understood. The challenge for the international community lies in navigating this shifting terrain, adapting to a new reality where traditional frameworks may no longer apply.

As these dynamics unfold, the responses of global leaders to Trump's assertive strategies will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of IR in the years to come.

▶️ 特朗普的人生哲學：暗殺不遂的救世主情結？
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzqNtSVbAyY