【讀者分享 🇺🇸🇨🇳】 投行眼中的美中「對等關稅戰」（英文長版）

The 2025 reciprocal tariff represents another major escalation in the ongoing U.S–China trade war, paused briefly during COVID-19. It also signals Donald Trump’s renewed ambition to reshape the global trade order and revitalize U.S. industry. At present, other countries are becoming collateral damage in this intensifying rivalry between the world’s two economic giants.

The world is moving into a “post-modern stage”. As Peter Oppenheimer (Goldman Sachs) noted, we’re entering a “post-modern stage” of the global economy. Globalization is giving way to fragmented bilateral agreements. Allies such as Europe, Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, and Japan are likely to strike deals with the U.S. while China may find itself increasingly isolated—regardless of its willingness to compromise. Economic decoupling is well underway, and political decoupling is happening already.

Tariff policy is part of national security agenda. With no historical precedent to rely on, both academia and market analysts are struggling to interpret its implications—compounded by the unpredictable nature of the president. While there is general consensus that tariffs will stoke inflationary pressures and potentially lead to a recession, the timing, depth, and duration remain uncertain. These outcomes are subject to negotiation, retaliation, market volatility, shifts in monetary policy, and investor sentiment. Volatility will reign, and liquidity remains fragile.

It is still early to conclude the end of “US exceptionalism”. “This is still the most prosperous nation on the planet, [with the] the deepest and widest capital markets the world has ever seen,” (Jamie Dimon said to reporters on Friday. ) 」 “If you’re going to invest your money in something, America is still a pretty good place in a turbulent world.” Concerns around China's use of U.S. Treasury holdings, the dollar’s long-term strength, and the durability of U.S. equities persist. Recent long-end Treasury selling has spooked markets, especially in the context of potential erosion of US treasury’s "flight-to-quality" status. But despite rising uncertainties, there remains no true alternative to the U.S. in terms of total GDP, productivity, innovation, deregulation, and entrepreneurship. If the U.S. enters a recession, few nations would benefit—and unfortunately should China decline further, global repercussions might be significant as well, including for the U.S. But as the dominant rule maker of old and new global order, America is still having its unique prestige.

Also it is early to regard the recession as an imminent risk. Although many mainstream analysts assign a high probability, frequently revising estimates from below 50% to above 60%, only to pull back to 45% hours after Trump paused further tariff. I still believe the American economy has the resilience and strength to navigate uncertainty. The health of private sectors either from their balance sheet, profitability will provide assurance. There is no funding crisis as we experienced in 2008. There is neither the high valuation concern of top technology name as that in 2000 internet bubble. There is no inflation shock from oil price as that in 1970s. So far the uncertainty, the panic, the herd mentality are very entangled with the market behaviour.

Tariff seemed a “mission impossible” when tasked with resolving America’s structural challenges: the twin deficits, a hollowed-out manufacturing base, a lagging supply chain, a weakened defense industry, and declining shipbuilding capacity etc. Many economists and investors criticize the protectionist nature of the policy. Yet few offer viable alternatives are given—particularly when framed within the national security context. No pain, no gain. America has long benefited from globalization, but it has also led to unsustainable deficits. The resulting pain may be prolonged and disruptive, potentially straining strategic relationships with allies. But time will tell whether in near term, tariffs may boost revenues; in the long term, they may help revive U.S. manufacturing. For the Trump administration, tariffs are the only important lever to exert America’s bargaining power as the world’s largest economy and the holder of the world’s largest trade deficit, which also will protect it against the mounting threat from China in geopolitics.