Russia Ukraine Flash Report - 3/15/22 09:15 PDT

EDIT: Earlier version reported Romania - it should be the Czech Republic

I don't have time for an AM TikTok with real work so as an added benefit - interim updates complete with grammar and spelling mistakes.

Four situations this morning:

1. The leaders of Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are on a train to Kyiv as I type this, for a meeting with President Zelenskyy. They are meeting under the authority of the entire European Union

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1503650313814876162/photo/1

The meeting itself is historic, comparable to going to London to meet with Churchill at the height of the Blitz. There is another reason this meeting is significant. All three of these countries are considered backsliding democracies. Poland and Hungary in particular. Hungarian leader Orban has been openly supportive of Putin and his policies right up to the invasion (I'm 50% Hungarian 2nd generation, not a fan of the guy or his policies). It may be possible that if one of the excuses to invade Ukraine was "de-Nazification," Duda of Poland and Orban of Hungary went, "gulp." Both nations have serious white nationalist problems that pale to the situation in Ukraine (or the United States, Canada, but I digress).

Was the invasion a wake up call for these leaders of, "you're next," given their views on the Kremlin three months ago, or is this a cynical chance at political rehab?

https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/opinion/the-metamorphosis-of-visegrads-populists/

OPINION: Genuine solidarity - I think everyone west of Ukraine got a big reality check on February 24. All three of these nations have likely realized what my wife and I were talking about last night. If Russia keeps pushing west, even with the full intent of stopping at the Ukrainian border, shells and missiles will eventually be landing on their soil, even if only by accident.

2. The worst shelling on Kyiv and Kharkiv in over a week happened last night. In Kyiv multiple apartment blocks were hit in what can only be described as indiscriminate heavy shelling and missile attacks. For Kyiv, OPINION - frustration and vengeance because honestly, this is all the Russian military is capable of.

For Kharkiv, Russian forces have been losing ground for four days in a sustained counter-offensive by Ukraine. It has reached a point the southwest push toward Kyiv has stopped, and they are now pulling troops. The renewed civilian bombing is an attempt to break the will of the people. Historically, going back to ancient warfare, that has never worked. Unless the intention to starve, beat, and kill every resident.

Russia will never surround Kyiv from the north, without Kharkiv secured.

3. The amphibious fleet that has been off Crimea for over a week, is on the move again. It has sailed west-southwest, and now about equal-distant from Crimea and the southern coast of Ukraine.

There are three possible scenarios. One, a diversion, just like nine days ago, and it will sail back in a few days. Two, landing around Odessa with additional support. Three, sail to the Azov Sea for a landing at the secure port of Berdyansk to strengthen the hold on the Kherson Oblast. OPINION: An invasion around Odessa seems highly unlikely given the available strategic resources the Russian military has, and the air dominance the Ukrainian air force has in the western part of the nation.

3a. On the subject of Kherson, Russia announced they have full control of the Oblast that sits mostly east of the Dnieper River, and north of Crimea. OPINION: They have a firm hold on Kherson itself, but the entire Oblast is an optimistic assessment. There are videos that have emerged this morning showing convoys moving through Kherson (city). On the other hand, there are also videos showing widespread protests and another video showing Russian troops firing over the heads of protesters. Ukrainian TB-2 drones are still operating with near impunity over the Oblast. If you don't have air superiority - you don't have control.

3b. BONUS OPINION AND FACT COMBINED: It would be impossible to give the Ukrainian Air Force A-10s, and without fighter aircraft cover, they wouldn't be as effective as people think. If they had A-10s, they would positively wreck these supply and troop columns.

3c. BONUS BONUS OPINION: Drones, MLAWs, and Javelins have dramatically reduced the value of armor, especially if the armor is operating with minimal ground troops and without the benefit of air superiority. Just as gunpowder ended the age of armored knights, the repeating rifle ended columns of soldiers firing musket balls at close range at each other, the machinegun brought about and ended trench warfare, and just as the aircraft carrier ended the battleship, technology is making the vision of a tank invasion across the central plains of Europe a 20th century construct.

4. The price of oil, both Brent and WTI, have dropped below $100 in a continued "crash" of oil prices. Brent is $99 and change as I type this, sustained, and WTI is $94.50, with July contracts down to $90. Reasons? The world oil supply is fine (we did Tik Toks about it) along with US reserves at Cushing. COVID BA.2 is tearing through China and the zero-COVID policy just isn't working. Foxconn closed yesterday because their main Apple factory is in a region where 50 million people were put on full lockdown. The reduction in commerce and industrial output in China due to COVID, is softening the summer oil market.

Gasoline prices? Oh, they'll take weeks to go down - oh wait - wait - this just in! Summer driving season ahead, gas prices seen as sustaining a high level due to high demand over the summer. Film at 11.

4a. BONUS CONTENT: Oh ya COVID BA.2 is up in Europe too, including the UK, guess what's going to happen in the United States in about six weeks?

SNARK: If Biden is at fault for oil reaching $130 a barrel, doesn't he get credit for....

DISCLOSURE: Not a Biden fan, but I hate hypocrisy (if you haven't figured the second part out yet).

Full disclosure: I consulted for Conoco decades ago and currently own shares in Chevron as part of a stock fund for my daughter's college education.

(and if you're wondering, wouldn't a Tik Tok have been shorter, I banged this out in 17 minutes)