Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/17/22 9:45 PDT

Twenty-two days ago if you had told me:

* Kyiv will still be under Ukrainian control
* The city is largely functional and the seat of government
* Russia controls one city of 260,000 people - Kherson
* The Russian military has no electronic warfare capabiltiy
* The Russian air force did not establish air superiority
* Ukraine still has a functional air force
* Russian combat units are collapsing due to supplies, fuel, morale, communications, and logistics
* The biggest gains in the last 14 days have come from irregular troops of the DNR
* Three weeks later Ukraine will successfully launch a multi-axis counter offensive
* Vladimir Putin will plunge Russia back to a Soviet age in three weeks and institute Stalin grade purges at the Kremlin

I would have said, impossible.

Here we are.

Three nuggets this morning.

The Ukraine counter offensive to defend Mykolaiv not only pushed Russian forces out of the area south and east of the city, but has plunged to Posad-Pokrowske, in the Kherson Oblast. That is about half-way to the city of Kherson itself. That's 25 to 30 kilometers in less than 24 hours.

Receipts? Ukraine military leaders talked to reporters outside the Posad-Pokrowske Cultural Center and provided an update on the counter offensive. That's receipts.

Second, Deputy Head of Russian National Guard (sort of the national guard but not in the United States sense), General Roman Gavrilov no longer has a job. We can say that confidently. There are three narratives going on. First, he was arrested by the FSB. Second he was detained by the FSB, questioned, released, and then fired, or third, he was fired.

Sergei Lavrov was supposed to meet in China today but canceled the trip. The firing of eight Russian generals we reported last week within the Kremlin, also confirmed. Less than 24 hours after being booted from the Council of Europe, the Federal Assembly introduced a bill to bring back the death penalty.

Russia has gone from a kleptocracy to the Soviet Era in just 22 days, and it is looking like President Putin has dusted off the Stalin Playbook.

The last bit is the situation in Mariupol. Satellite images show that 90% of the buildings and infrastructure is damaged or destroyed. Our comparisons to Stalingrad were not hyperbole.

OPINION: We might be seeing the impacts of the loss of General Oleg Mityaev already. If the Ukrainian military can put pressure on Kherson Oblast, and challenge supply lines from Crimea, The Russian military is going to need to pull DNR and their own forces from the east. Without Mykolaiv, an amphibious assault on Odesa has no support troops to link up to. They instantly become a surrounded pocket.