Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/18/22 09:15 PDT

Another night of limited sleep for myself, most of the team took a bit of a break and Renee Raketty, our field producer, did a great follow up on the man who drove his truck into the Seattle Federal Building almost two weeks ago.

We covered the missile attack on Lviv last night, and had it in the SITREP report for 3/17/22.

After coffee I went to check our intelligence sources. Nothing. Literally, nothing. Across the board. It's quiet.

Our assessment that Rubizhne and Popasna are not fully under Russian control is correct. Mariupol still stands as does Severodonetsk. Mykolaiv got their first shipment of fresh vegetables and other staples in almost two weeks this morning.

In our SITREP yesterday we wrote how Russia has had to pull in reserve troops they were holding to invade the Odesa area, and possibly Transnistria. Russia deployed the First Guards Tank Army in northeastern Ukraine - this is the best of the best in terms of training and equipment. In the first 48 hours of deployment, it hasn't gone great (it hasn't gone bad either).

We had read the various assessments that the Russian capabilities to mount offensive operations would grind to a halt by the 20th of March. We were really skeptical, even though this was the view of multiple western (I hate that term but here we are) intelligence agencies.

It's approaching the 19th in Ukraine and it appears the assessment is true. The main thrust of Russian activity is the Donbas, and most of the gains have come from DNR militias. 

It is almost impossible to believe 23 days later, the Russian military capabilities have been reduced to holding what little ground they have gained, targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure to terrorize the population, still struggling with basic logistics, and trying to protect fragile supply lines.

Is this a calm before the storm or has the Russian war machine ground to a temporary stop?

Time will tell.