Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/18/22 11:15 PDT

Ukraine released videos of the artillery strike against Kherson Airport and they reveal a lot.

There were two drones on station, one 48 kilometers away (now we know more about camera capabilities and the stability of the TB2) and a second one over the airport itself, directing artillery fire.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504871245904588803

It is stunning that Ukraine was able to fly a TB2 over Kherson Airport in daylight and not have it signal jammed or challenge by electronic warfare or air defenses. It loitered and directed fire.

The Ukrainian capabilities to direct fire is far better than we expected. 

There may be bigger news from this story. Euromaiden Press is not a fully reliable source (we put them in the category of digging deep on anything they report)  but is far more accurate than the Jerusalem Post or NEXA (we put them in the category of - nope).

Euromaiden is reporting that the helicopters and fuel depot were just an added bonus and not the real target.  The commanding general of the Russian 8th CAA, along with "several" generals who were at the airbase for a meeting, were the real targets. Ukraine has been very good at bringing receipts when reporting the deaths of Russian generals, and the report is the general commanding the 8th CAA was eliminated, and possibly others.

The 8th CAA is fighting in Donbas, so there is a yellow light (not a red light) on the authenticity of the report. We know that in order for Russia to gain control of Eastern Ukraine, it will take multiple battalions and commands to coordinate. Given the state of secure communications in country (barely any) a face-to-face meeting doesn't seem impossible.

The Russian Ministry of Defense had declared Kherson Oblast was secured the day before the meeting, and travel from Crimea and the Donbas wouldn't be very treacherous if the convoy followed effective protocols (air defense with the convoy, route reconnaissance, proper spacing for vehicles, no stopping at intersections, electronic warfare jamming, air support available).

We will be watching this story very closely, even if Russia lost only one general, there was an estimated 20 in country - the count would go to five. That's would be 25% of their senior leadership lost in less than a month.

It could also explain the near theaterwide pause by Russian forces (so far) today.

Given the ongoing purges at the Kremlin (not the Stalin kind, the Trump "you're fired" kind), these are people not easily replaced, and their replacements will likely have less experience - if this gets confirmed.