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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/20/22 15:15 PDT

Four situations we're tracking this afternoon:

1) An Iskandar cruise missile hit the Retroville Mall in northwest Kyiv. The mall is located in a civilian and commerce area. There is nothing that would remotely be a military target in the area. Multiple sources instantaneously geolocated this attack before we even found out about it.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1505662497428320263

We will repeat it. At this time, and for the short term, the Russian military cannot mount large-scale offensives beyond the regimental level. Having lost the initiative and no viable way to be mobile, they are trying to break the will of the Ukrainian civilian population.

This strategy has never worked throughout human history unless Russia's intent is the complete annihilation of the population. The senseless targeting of civilians and their basic infrastructure will only lead to a violent and unmanageable insurgency in occupied areas. 

2) The Russian Ministry of Defense told the Mariupol city government they are to surrender, unconditionally, by the morning of March 21, or else. Or else what? Exactly.

3) There is a lot of confusion on who is counter-attacking between Kherson and Mykolaiv, but things were a bit spicy today. There has been no change in areas of control.

4) Russia lost another Colonel outside of Kyiv. 


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