Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/21/22 14:00 PDT

The geopolitical situation involving the Russia-Ukraine War is getting more tenuous.

Russia has broken off peace talks with Japan over the Kuril islands, and has canceled the visas of Japanese citizens who travel there for family or work. The possession of the islands has been in dispute since the end of World War II, but has been more a geographically oddity than a potential flashpoint. In itself, the act seems minor, but it is an indication of the rapidly deteriorating diplomatic situation. 

The deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, wrote a [editor's note - really struggling for the word here] rambling and at times odd post that appears to be laying the foundation to justify an invasion of Poland. There has been concern expressed that in a Mutual Assured Destruction Instability Paradox, Russia would attempt to create a land bridge to Kaliningrad. Because of the geography of the Balkans and terrain, moving through Poland would be a an easier route.

In response, the Polish government announced they are actively working on plans to repel a Russian invasion. I don't need to flag this assessment with the word assessment, because this is a stone cold fact. This is a significant escalation in rhetoric.

SIDEBAR:  A very critical history lesson. The Soviet Union invaded Poland on September 17, 1939 as an ally of Germany, as part of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact made in August 1939. Although this was a relationship of convivence, the Soviet administration of Eastern Poland was drenched in blood and brutality that rivaled their short-term Nazi allies.

On July 29, 1944, Soviet radio broadcasted that it was time for Polish resistance to rise up, that tanks and artillery were within earshot of the city and would soon arrive to support the uprising. Up to 50,000 Polish fighters, relatively well equipped, led by the best surviving political and military leaders left in Poland, rose up on August 1, 1944. However, Stalin had issued a direct order on July 27, 1944, not to secure Warsaw, but only the suburbs. Fuel deliveries were cut to Soviet tank forces 15 kilometers from the city. In a stunning example of how history doesn't repeat but rhymes, Soviet intelligence officers were reporting to Stalin that the Polish Home Army was weak and full of Nazi sympathizers. The Red Army sat outside of Warsaw, while 50,000 Poles, including almost all elements of the home army and eastern resistance, were systematically executed.

When Germany surrendered in May 1945, it was already preordained between Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill that the Soviet Union would have sphere of influence of the Baltics, Poland, and because of geography, Kaliningrad. The enclave had been under Germany control since 1922, and was formerly handed over to the Soviets in 1946.

OPINION: Medvedev can attempt to rewrite history all he wants, the Soviets were no friend of Poland.

There are reports that President Orban of Hungary has indicated he would veto any effort to establish a peace keeping force or implement a no fly zone over Ukraine. [candidly we don't know enough about EU/NATO laws/charter to understand if he has this power]. Orban has refused to take a stand on the invasion or provide any aid to Ukraine, stating that the nation wants to remain neutral.

OPINION: If part of Russia's justification for invading Ukraine is "denazification," Orban should be afraid - very afraid. As a second generation Hungarian who is Jewish (that side is from Italy and Belarus) with contacts in Hungary, we are told that antisemitism is a major problem in the former Warsaw Pact nation.

SIDEBAR: If you check Hungary Wikipedia for my last name, you'll learn some family history. Apparently we were a hit in the mid 1800s (ability to read Hungarian required)

Kyrgyzstan and Armenia will no longer accept customs fees in roubles from Russia, and are demanding the payments be made in US dollars. 

ASSESSMENT: A wounded bear trapped in a corner is extremely unpredictable and could lash out with fully fury.