Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/21/22 14:45 PDT

You have likely seen the reports that the Russian Tabloid Komsomolskaya published a story about the ongoing situation in Ukraine. The original version of the story included what the author indicated were casualty numbers of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

KIA: 9.861

WIA: 16,153

The story was edited about 20 minutes later to remove that part of the story, and ten minutes later was gone. (the Internet is forever).

We have talked to two experts on Russian State Media. Our questions were, how loyal to the Kremlin has the publication been historically, and have they even tiptoed on anti "special military operations" numbers. 

We were told that although it is a tabloid (think NY Post, Daily Mail) it is highly praised and tightly aligned to the messaging out of the Kremlin.

ASSESSMENT: As journalists, here is what we believed happened. The Ministry of Defense gave an update and was possibly interviewed by Komsomolskaya. The numbers were likely shared. Journalists don't hit publish on their stories, and typically don't write the headlines. Editors review the story, check the notes of the journalist (sometimes) for accuracy, write the headline (large organizations can have a dedicated headline writer), and approve the story for publishing. The actual "push" to the web is automated, and typically managed by someone one rung above intern. Given the number of eyeballs that would review this story and the climate within Russia, we doubt this was a rogue reporter.

OPINION: We find it very difficult to believe that the editor did not go, "are you sure about this," and asked for receipts. If there was even the slightest question about the receipts, we find it difficult to believe the editor did not double-check with their contacts either by e-mail or phone call (for their sake I hope e-mail). 

COUNTER OPINION: It isn't impossible they received a spoofed e-mail or message that appeared to have come from Ministry of Defense. 

ASSESSMENT PART II: We cannot determine if this leak was accidental or intentionally. After talking to two Russian media experts, we believe these numbers are accurate, but can't discern the motivation to publish them.

With 170,000 Russian forces in-country (another 20,000 from Chechnya and Syria, and an unknown number with Wagner Group), this is a stunning 15.3% casualty rate. That number does not include missing in action, so the casualty rate is higher. If you're a Russian soldier in-country in Ukraine, you had a 1:6.5 chance of becoming a casualty in the first 24 days.

For comparison, combined Allied forces suffered 9% casualties (including missing in action) in the Arden over a 34 day period from December 1944 to January 1945.

Including casualties from tropical disease, the United States suffered 20% casualties at Guadalcanal, and at Iwo Jima it was 38.5% (ground forces only).

These numbers do not include Chechen, DNR, LNR, Syrian, or PMC losses. They likely do not include the 331st Regiment and 6th Tank Regiment losses from 3/18-3/19.

One word - appalling.