Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/22/22 9:45 PDT

Breaking news out of Kyiv. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced a curfew yesterday (we missed that in our SITREP). The last time Kyiv was put under curfew, the Ukrainian military launched a major counteroffensive northwest of the city and pushed Russian forces out of Brovary.

According to the Pentagon, multiple credible reports, and NASA FIRMS data, the Ukrainian military has launched what we would describe as a strategic offensive on Russian and Chechen forces entrenched in Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel - including Antonov Airport. 

Last night before I went to bed, I saw the reports that Makariv had been retaken and secured, 60 to 70 kilometers west of the center of Kyiv. Ukrainian forces had taken the city over the weekend and finished mop-up operations yesterday. Also yesterday, Ukraine secured the town of Moschun, which is northeast of Hostomel. 

A few hours ago, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that supply lines for occupying forces in Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel have been cut off.

ASSESSMENT: It appears that Ukrainian forces swept northeast from Makariv and west from Moschun overnight, and linked up behind the dug-in Russian and Chechen defenses at Hostomel. 

The Russian air force and air defenses are weak in this area, giving Ukraine an additional advantage. Ground forces do not have to worry about being battered from the air in the advance.

Given that the forces within the fractured convoy that was northwest of Kyiv are combat ineffective and out of basic supplies, Russians will have a hard time mounting a counteroffensive to open up the pocket.

We are also seeing reports of significant tactical offensive advancing on Kherson. The situation within the city has deteriorated significantly in the last 48 hours. Food and medicine are critically low for the civilian population, and Russian soldiers fired live rounds at protesters yesterday, severely wounding one person. Russian forces abandoned air operations at Kherson Airport on Monday.

Finally, the Pentagon is reporting the Russian navy is firing on the city of Mariupol. It is very difficult to get any information we can validate on the situation in the city, with the departure of the press.