Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/24/22 14:30 PDT

Russian forces northwest of Kyiv are not surrounded, but the pocket they are in has been reduced in the last 24 hours. The Ukrainian military has the capability to surround up to 12,000 Russian troops, located mostly in Bucha and Hostomel. That would include retaking the Antonov International Airport.

Multiple videos and pictures on social intelligence, as well as NASA FIRMS data (pictured above) show that most of the fighting has ended in Irpin. Ukraine is estimated to firmly control 80% of the Kyiv suburb. We agree with that assessment and believe it might be conservative.

The key to turning the pocket into an encirclement remains Borodyanka. There are an estimated 5,000 Chechen fighters in that area. NASA FIRMS data show a strong probability of intense fighting in the center of the city in the last 24 hours. Drone video yesterday showed the downtown core was heavily damaged, with many destroyed military vehicles in the streets. It did not show any ongoing fighting. However, it also did not show any people on the ground.

Russian forces in Bucha and the northeast quadrant of Hostomel are increasingly pressed. In our assessment, resupply into this area is extremely challenging, if not impossible. With the well-documented supply issues along this corridor, there is a high probability medical supplies, food, drinking water, and ammunition are or will become, serious problems for Russian forces.

The pocket can be closed if Ukrainian troops from Makariv can link up with troops pushing into Borodyanka. Chechen forces may be blocked from the north, since we learned yesterday Ukraine controls Tal's'ke, about 20 kilometers north. With Ukrainian and volunteer forces west, south, and north of Borodyanka, Chechen defenders are likely incentivized to hold the town as long as they can. They have nowhere to go except the east, which only provides a breakout to the north. Thee will be no relief in Hostomel and the encirclement would be made complete.