Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/25/22 12:30 PDT
Added 2022-03-25 19:34:56 +0000 UTCWe are seeing a lot of videos from Mariupol of Russian forces moving in parts of the city. There is a video from Russia Today within Mariupol, but we don't know if their reporters shot the video or when it was shot. Geolocation is challenging due to the damage in the city.
We are also seeing videos of continued fighting within the city, and areas where Russian forces do not have control, mostly the southern part from the city center to the eastern edge of the Azovstal Metallurgical Factory.
We believe that the occupation of Mariupol will occur within the next three to seven days based on the information we can gather. NASA FIRMS is showing major fires in the city center, indicating intense fighting for the heart of Mariupol.
ASSESSMENT: We believe defenders will fall back to the Azovstal Metallurgical Factory for their last stand. It is a sprawling complex with reinforced areas, and tactically it makes sense.
Occupiers have a very high probability of facing a sustained and significant insurgency after taking control that will force significant resources to remain in the city.
We further believe that occupying forces will suffer from low morale due to overall conditions and attrition from accidents, snipers, IEDs, and small hit and run attacks.
Comments
Not even ground troops, airstrikes and cruise missiles and the tide of the war would be changing. But it is very risky.
Alexandru Tudorica
2022-03-25 21:25:08 +0000 UTC
