Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/25/22 14:30 PDT

The Pentagon says Russian forces are losing control of Kherson.

The mayors of Irpin and Makarov claim that Ukrainian forces don't control their cities.

What does this mean, and what does "control" mean?

The are two issues - how civilians define control versus the military and how the military defines control.

First for Irpin and Makarov. Military leaders considers a city under control when there forces hold the city center and the primary districts/neighborhoods that most would recognize as part of the city core.

This can get very complicated when you define the geography. For example, Boston is geographically very small. Many not from Boston would consider Winthrop, Dorchester, Roxbury, West Roxbury, Brookline and Newton as Boston. Additionally, Boston includes several islands in Boston Harbor. So how do you define, militarily, control of Boston? Do you include the dense urban suburbs? Do you include the islands?

How would you define control for a sprawling cities like Houston or Los Angeles? You can drive 100 kilometers an hour for 60 minutes in a straight line and never leave Houston! It an occupying force controlled everything from the ship canal to I-610, and everything within the beltway, would you still say occupiers don't control Houston?

Ukrainian forces control Irpin and Makarov. There remains 10% to 15% of Irpin in the northwest corner where fighting continues as of this writing, but that pocket is surrounded by terrain and troops. The mayors of both cities say they aren't under control because artillery shells are still hitting their communities. But would anyone says Ukraine doesn't control Kyiv (beyond Russian state media)? Does Saudi Arabia not control Jeddah?

In civilian speak, the cities aren't under control, in military speak they are. It is a case where they are both right, and both wrong, depending on the lens you use.

That brings us to Kherson. The Pentagon said Russian forces are losing control of Kherson. Is that true?

On Sunday Russia ended air operations at Kherson International Airport, and ended all helicopter air operations in the Oblast. It has become too dangerous for helicopters to operate and the Ukrainian Air Force has strong air dominance in the area. Russia has lost 30 helicopters at the airport in three weeks, and two generals.

A pro-Russian local that was hand picked to be part of the puppet government was assassinated. Three days after shooting unarmed anti-occupation protesters (wounding three), Russian engineers are having to clear IEDs from the edge of roadways. Yesterday, residents hung a building sized Ukrainian flag on Kherson City Hall. The airport on the western edge of the city is pounded by rockets and artillery every day.

For occupying forces, the harassment from troops northwest of the city coupled with a hostile population is making movement more difficult. Russian forces "control" Kherson, but they are losing control of Kherson due to a growing local insurgency.