Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/26/22 09:30 PDT

Four big stories we're following this morning. We're going to put them in the reverse order of importance.

1) The western city of Lviv was struck by three cruise missiles, with reports of explosions rocking the city. We don't know what targets were hit, but we do know that Internet service in the city is very curtailed. Reports are a fuel depot, a TV transmission tower, and a large grocery store or food warehouse (think a civilian distribution center) were the targets. Reminder, 24 hours ago Russia Ministry of Defense said Phase One was over, and Phase Two would be the securing of the Donbas. So much for that. You'd think that was the big story but...

2) A few hours before the strike on Lviv, there are multiple reports from the Russian side that air raid sirens sounded in Sevastopol and air defenses intercepted a Ukrainian missile targeting the Crimea area. There was a flash detected by satellites.

OPINION: Was the strike on Lviv planned, or retaliation due to an attempted strike on Sevastopol? We've already seen Ukraine can be successful with a precision SRBM strike. 

3) There is a lot of chatter that Ukrainian forces will try and take Kherson (city) this weekend, including from the government. We've haven't seen Ukraine do an online psyop before, certainly nothing with this kind of traction. We don't know what to make of it and maintain that if Ukraine takes Kherson it is more likely because Russia is doing a troop drawdown. The strategic value of the city is overstated and it is very hard to defend due to geography.

4) This is the biggest news that no one is going to talk about (but we will). Gen. Sergei Kisel was fired from his post as the commanding officer of the 1st Tank Army. of the Western Military. The 1st Tank Army was activated in northeast Ukraine approximately two weeks ago as a reserve force with the mission to take control of the Kharkiv Oblast. For all of the chatter of, "when will Russia send in their best," the 1st Tank Army is among Russia's elite forces. This was some of the best equipped and experienced tank units available. He has been fired due to "unrepairable losses" of his forces. 

Number four is the biggest story, by far.