Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/28/22 11:45 PDT

The Mayor of Mariupol has called for the complete evacuation of the city due to the humanitarian situation. We agree with the assessment that the Russian and Chechen forces attacking the city are in a campign to eradicate the population.

City leaders have made multiple documented offers to cooperate with the Russian occupation forces to provide an evacuation of trapped civilians. Every proposal has been refused.

The ultimatum made by the Russian Ministry of Defense on March 20 for unconditional surrender was unacceptable. The MOD made it clear that there would be a "cleansing" and military tribunals. This is the historical language of coming atrocities that tore apart Bosnia, Rwanda, Syria, and other nations over the last 30 years.

Based on the documented actions of Russian forces in other regions, it is our assessment that the "cleansing" would not be limited to those engaged in the defense of the city. Additionally, the language only served to harden the resistance in the city by transmitting that prisoners of war would not receive fair treatment.

The situation within the city has reached conditions equivalent to the siege of Stalingrad. The last hospital, which had become non-functional after March 15, was captured over the weekend.

Despite the unspeakable conditions within Mariupol, we assess most of the able-bodied population has been radicalized. It is our assessment they will fight to the last and with their bare hands.

There is no food left in the city. Residents are eating pets and spoiled meat. In some cases, they are eating meat raw because fuel is gone, and some areas are so bombed out. There is nothing left to burn. In other cases, the smoke from a cooking fire brings mortar shells and snipers. 

The use of filtration camps by the Russians and forced deportations were documented in a report on March 26. Russian State Media has documented checkpoints are slowing evacuations and the murder of people based only on assumptions they are part of the mythical Azov Battalion.

It is critical to note that by the most generous estimates, the Azov Battalion had 5,000 members, almost exclusively in Mariupol. There is no discounting the problematic history of documented ties to white nationalism and pagan beliefs aligned explicitly with extremist views of racial superiority.

The continued justification of what has become the slaughter of thousands is, "we are fighting Azov Battalion," while simultaneously reporting the destruction of the Azovs daily.

Additionally, Russian state media tells their citizens that the Ukrainians are bombing their own city. This disinformation continues days after the Russian Ministry of Defense declared they had destroyed the military capabilities of the Ukrainian military, including the entire air force, combat drones, SRBM missile capability, navy, and 65% of all armored vehicles.

There has been no information or update on the joint French, Turkish, and Greek rescue plan. Although there is no formal military blockade, Turkey and the European Union are accusing Russia of blocking over 100 cargo ships in the Black Sea. Yesterday, Turkish officials found a drifting sea mine in their territorial waters. EOD removed the mine and detonated it. Military officials reported the mine looked "old" but did not clarify if that meant an outdated munition or had the appearance of being at sea for an extended period.

Strategically Ukraine does not have the military resources to stage a breakthrough of Russian lines. We continue with our assessment that the defense of Mariupol will collapse in the coming days.

It is our assessment that after the defense of the city collapses, Russian and Chechen forces will not be able to quickly redeploy to move toward Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, or the Donbas. Many units will be in a combat-ineffective state, and there is a high probability of a violent and aggressive insurgency.

Additionally, Russian forces have supply challenges to feed themselves, let alone a starving population of over 100,000 people. A subset of residents will require medical supervision for their nutritional needs and physical recovery.

These resources are not in place in Ukraine, and Russia has shown no willingness to allow third-party humanitarian efforts at scale.