Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-3-22 11:00 PDT - Severodonetsk Update

I know not everyone on the Flash Reports has access to the Situation Reports. Yesterday we changed our assessment on Severodonetsk.

"We can no longer determine when Russian forces will take control of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian forces continue to work on minimizing losses and maintaining combat capacity."

After the Mariupol defense (Severodonetsk is not Mariupol) and our repeated moving of the goal posts (Mariupol with fall in 7 to 14 days, Mariupol will fall in 7 to 14 days), we decided to admit at this point, we just don't know. We're truly surprised, and it does appear that Ukraine had plan of Severodonetsk.

If we count from when the Russian Ministry of Defense declared the siege of Severodonetsk started - that would be March 25. This morning there are videos of Ukrainian reinforcements heading into Severodonetsk. Additionally there are reports we're working on confirming, that Russia lost more control, with their forces pushed out of Metolkine. Don't get too excited about that report - that is unconfirmed.

Russian forces are absolutely bogged down west of Voronove, and have not been able to advance on the airport. Russian forces were pushed back a small distance in the central part of the city - about 200 meters - so a city block distance.

We maintain that the minute Ukraine believes they are at risk of being surrounded, or the expense is too high, they will withdraw. We also maintain it will happen at night. So the news will come to us around midnight Seattle time when/if it happens.

The issue for Russia is as long as they are stuck in Severodonetsk, every other offensive line suffers. With stiff resistance around Popasna, and almost no combat strength left, Russian commanders are going to have to make some very hard decisions.

It is clear to the west of Lyman, Russian forces are setting conditions to advance on Slovyansk - but if they lose their effective combat power on the banks of the Siverskyi Donets, it will be all for nothing. 

I want to caution the reader before you start feeling celebratory - in the big picture things are very difficult for Ukraine. It is almost certain that Severodonetsk will be captured by Russian forces at some point. The Popasna front is largely stalled out, but there are small advances still happening. Russian forces appear to be preparing for a wet crossing somewhere around Lyman (that's a big somewhere). Russian forces are making gains connecting the southeastern Izyum front with the Severodonetsk axis.

The bigger problem Russia faces right now is north of Kharkiv, west of Izyum, and in the Kherson Oblast. The fact that Ukraine was successful at Vesele in Kharkiv, is showing there is a bigger plan to the counteroffensive in Kherson and it is sustaining, and the admitted loss of the Russian 35th Army west of Izyum (more on that later), shows that the balance of power is reaching a tipping point.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has put itself into a tough position. Severodonetsk is a political victory - we control Luhansk Oblast. It would become the first Oblast they have full control over since the war started 100 days ago. However, Severodonetsk has become a military necessity because the entirety of Russia's offensive capability is stuck in Severodonetsk.