Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-3-22 14:15 PDT - Severodonetsk Collapse

Collapse feels like the correct word. The Russian attempt to capture Severodonetsk is in collapse. We've talked to some subject matter experts today who are qualified to play armchair general (Colonel, actually).

This was a trap that Ukraine set up to protect against their weaknesses and utilize their strengths.

Urban warfare always favors the defender due to institutional knowledge, local support, and the ability to fall back to continuous strong points. They know the streets, they know the tunnels, they know the floorplans, they know the chokepoints.

It was well established that Ukraine had set up fortified defenses in the city. There were two hints in plain sight that there was a bigger plan. The first was the Regional Defense offices which had been cleared of everything before Chechen's arrived. Ukrainian military leaders cleared their offices in an organized way, not in panic. All that remained were desks, chairs, stray unimportant papers, coffee mugs, and some office supplies. The Chechen's war trophy after searching the building? Chechens only found a single handheld radio was found in a basement.

The second clue is when the Luhansk government announced that all dangerous chemicals at Azot had been removed well before the attack. At first, both of these actions align with "we're not planning on staying,"

Allowing Russian troops to flood into the center of Severodonetsk unopposed, they took away the two best military assets Russia has been using to secure its advances in the Donbas - artillery and air power.

Once Russian forces moved into the city and established their Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC - aka supply lines), the risk of friendly fire on the concentrated positions became extreme. With fighting separated by two street blocks, airstrikes with non-precision munitions at a low level are too dangerous. Using standoff weapons like rockets isn't precise enough. Russia's bad decisions to use precision weapons on unnecessary targets to the point of depletion contributed to this.

Ukrainian forces squeezed the Russian advance into the downtown pocket, taking away the ability to use artillery and airstrikes. However, the NATO-provided M777-based 155mm systems are far more accurate, and Ukraine has been firing into the rear areas hampering the GLOC.

It was a trap - they walked right into it.

We have multiple videos of supplies and troops continuing to move on the T-1302 Highway and into Severodonetsk. Russia will be highly reluctant to destroy the two remaining bridges over the Siveskyi Donets River - they need them to advance on Lysychansk. 

Ukrainian forces have created a salient in the center of the city. To the northeast, they've advanced almost to the Mir Hotel. To the southeast, they've retaken Bobrove and hold Toshivka. Russian troops south of Ustyivka are being attacked on three sides and are at extreme risk of encirclement. It is a small group - maybe a company. However, falling back southeast from Ustynivka relieves Zolote and could reestablish a Ukrainian GLOC that heads south toward the Popansa axis.

There are reports that Russia has activated its reserve troops and is moving them into the city. That is impossible to confirm without a video of advances. Pro-Russian bloggers will want to amplify that message, and Ukrainian sources can't reveal if they've broken into Russian communications or not due to OPSEC.

There is a lot of speculation that General Aleksandr Dvornikov has been relieved of command over operations in Ukraine. This is based on one reason - no one has seen him in over two weeks. Looking back over the last 100 days, that's not reason enough.

Several high-profile Russian military leaders have also had low profiles back to May. A basic rule of war is you don't change generals in the middle of a battle.

This raises the bigger question - because Ukraine has been hitting Russian forces on multiple fronts in the last week. Is this the end of Russia's offensive capabilities in Ukraine? Are we seeing the final transition into a defensive war of attrition - Phase 3 - theaterwide?

We maintain the minute Ukrainian forces believe they are at risk of encirclement, they'll retreat to Lysychansk. As of June 4, there is no reason to.

Severodonetsk will reveal if this is the case. We believe Russia will break its back if it has to in Severodonetsk. The Russian Ministry of Defense has redefined victory as the liberation of the Luhansk Oblast. There is no possible way left to redefine what winning looks like for the Kremlin.