Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-14-22 11:30 PDT - Izyum Counteroffensive Grows

Ukrainian forces liberated Prydonetske, the last settlement west of Izyum in the Russian dubbed "Sherwood Forest." Ukrainian forces are now 11 kilometers from the heart of Izyum and 8 kilometers from the city limits.

Due to Operational Security (OPSEC) there is something else we know that we will not share - but expect some more news in this area in the coming days.

The timing of this action makes sense after the withdrawal of the 35th CAA by Russia, and most Russian troops now focused on an advance toward Slovyansk. While Ukraine is short of heavy weapons, the terrain in this area highly favors Ukrainian tactics, training, and equipment.

ASSESSMENT: Ukraine lacks the resources for a direct assault on Izyum. Ukraine has established a force of significant size north of the Siverskyi Donets which has advanced 15 kilometers in 72 hours. That is likely the extent of the push for now while Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC - supply lines) are strengthened into this area. This is speculative only in order of ambition.

1) Least ambitious: Force Russia to pull troops from the southeast advance toward Slovyansk to shore up the western flank. Ukrainian forces will benefit from the terrain, local knowledge, and the ability to build defenses and reinforce the rudimentary Russian defenses in this area. This would require less than a brigade.

2) Move in self-propelled artillery and do shoot and scoot on the forested roads to interdict the Russian GLOC and administrative hub in Izyum. Also hit Russian GLOC advancing southeast at Dovhenke, the M03 Highway, Sukha Kamyanka, Yaremivka, Pasika, and Studenok. All of these settlements are in range of conventional NATO M777 artillery. This would require at least a brigade and two to three secured wet crossings.

3) Most ambitious: Pivot north through the forest toward Ivanvika [Kharkiv, north of Izyum], and follow the Siverskyi Donets River northeast to Levikivka. Then follow the high ground (relatively speaking) ridge that extends east almost the E40 Highway and interdict or cut the Russian GLOC. This would require multiple brigades, armor and air support, and multiple secured wet crossings.