Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-20-22 11:00 PDT - Snake Island and Gas Rigs

There are some major developments in the Black Sea, and historically it has been slow and challenging to gain the facts. This is a general assessment due to the lack of details and a lot of sources rushing to conclusions.

Both Russian and Ukrainian sources are reporting that Ukraine attacked up to three "oil platforms" (they were for natural gas) that Russia stole in 2014 during the occupation of Crimea. There is a heat signature per NASA FIRMS in the middle of the Black Sea, where this infrastructure is located. Ukraine is reporting they hit the facilities with missiles. Russian state media has reported five civilians have been injured. There are no reports of oil slicks. There are no reports of an uncontained wellhead fire.

There is an unconfirmed report that a Russian warship was using one of the platforms as a shield, and has been damaged in the attack. There are no reports of any vessels sunk. There are no reports of any casualties. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has a history of denying successful attacks on ships and has spread disinformation about attacks that never happened. In our assessment, this will take at least 24 hours to reach any preliminary conclusions, and up to 72 hours to get to facts.

There are a lot of reports that Snake Island was hit with multiple missiles overnight. Coastal residents are reporting flashes and the sound of distant explosions, but we would caution that these are not a full indication that an attack was carried out. The attacks on the oil platforms would not be visible from the coastline and likely would not have been heard. Sound acoustics over open water can travel tremendous distances that would not happen over land, so we won't dismiss that possibility if all the conditions were perfect.

According to the University of Google, the Danish Harpoon systems Ukraine received were upgraded by Boeing to have the capability of hitting port and land targets. We've burned through our satellite credits for June, and other sources are waiting for satellite passes today to assess the situation on Snake Island.

The oil platforms that were attacked are out of range of Ukrainian Neptune missiles, would require a degree of precision that is on the ragged edge of the Tochka-U SRBM capabilities, and would push the limits of the capability of the Bayraktar TB-2 drones.