Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-22-22 12:15 PDT Nothing Burger on White Bread

Not sure how to read the tea leaves today. Outside of Severodonetsk, where block-by-block fighting continues, there weren't any significant ground advances attempted by either belligerent theaterwide.

The big story today is a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil refinery in Russia. It appears that an inexpensive commercial drone was modified for the attack. 

There was a lot of artillery fire from both belligerents and some airstrikes. Russia continues to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.

Access on the T-1302 Highway from Bakhmut to Lysychansk has reportedly improved. Ukrainian forces still hold Komyshuvakha and Zolote, as well as most of Hirske.

Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) troops attempted a small offensive north of Avdiivka that was unsuccessful. Troop strength and supporting artillery are so diminished around Donetsk that we believe this was more of a, "do something," push for civilians in Pro-Russian Donetsk who have experienced shelling through most of June.

We wouldn't read too much into the pause by Russian forces southeast of Lysychansk for now. Russian forces advanced 7 to 8 kilometers in a day and the prudent decision would be to reinforce the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC, supply line) before continuing the advance. 

We wouldn't read too much into the pause by Ukrainian forces northwest of Kherson. the prudent thing to do after liberating Kyselivka is to consolidate forces in the settlement before continuing the advance.

Maxar publicly released high-resolution photos of Snake Island and it does appear that Ukrainian forces caused significant damage to the Russian garrison and some equipment. 

It's close to dark in Ukraine, so it's unlikely there will be any major events in the next 4 to 6 hours.