Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/31/22 13:15 PDT

There is a lot of information coming out of Ukraine and I'm dealing with a lot of "real world" work today, so I don't have a lot of time to read the intel the team has gathered - but I can give you my quick analysis.

We're getting a lot of confusing information near and in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Yesterday the Ukrainian General Staff and analysts we work with reported that Ivankiv had been liberated. This is considered a strategic location and one of three towns that Ukraine needs to secure to entrap up to 20,000 Russian and Chechen soldiers in a large bulge northwest of Kyiv. 

This morning (Seattle time) the Ukrainian General Staff reported up to 700 pieces of Russian "equipment" passed through Ivankiv on their way to Belarus. 

Was that before the town was captured? Did they let the equipment pass through after it was captured? What constitutes equipment? 700 pieces of equipment is an exceptionally large number, even if we account for towed artillery, cargo trailers, and "requisitioned" Ukrainian civilian vehicles. A lot of questions (and we don't talk to the General Staff so no way to get an answer from them).

We feel confident in saying Chernobyl, the Exclusion Zone, and Slavutych are in Ukrainian control. We've read two reports that indicate Chernobyl was left in good condition, and that the transfer from Russian forces back to Ukrainian staff was amicable from both sides. What isn't clear is although it is back under Ukrainian control, we don't know if Russian forces are still in the area, are they being allowed to evacuate through Chernobyl into Belarus? How does this impact the 20,000 troops in the northwest bulge? Looking at the map, if Ukraine is in charge of Chernobyl, then evacuation from the west side of Kyiv is impossible.

The Russian troops trapped in two pockets east of Brovary attempted breakouts today. Fighting was described as intense.

Ukrainian forces are reporting the liberation of a staggering number of towns and villages. We literally can't keep up today with confirming the reports and geolocation work on the images and videos coming in. Complicating confirmation is some of this activity was classified by the General Staff, so we are starting to find out about towns/villages captured as far back as March 25-26. That makes image confirmation harder because we have to dig through weather records. 

Russian forces appear to be losing a staggering amount of equipment this week. It is the same situation as liberated towns, we can't keep up with all the reports, images, and geolocation requests. We don't know if these are net new losses in recent fighting or earlier losses during the fighting when Ukrainian territory was taken and we are just learning about them.

Russia and Ukraine both lost a Mi-8 helicopter in separate incidents. Ukraine in Kherson Oblast (still confirming) and Russian in the Chernihiv Oblast (geolocated, the Russian one was reported yesterday). Pictures at the Ukrainian crash site show at least four dead.

Russia apparently attacked their "own" oil refinery and tank farm in Luhansk again. The tank farm (oil and hydrocarbon storage tanks not stuck in the mud tanks) was heavily damaged in an airstrike by the Russian Air Force. The refinery has been closed since 2012, is Russian-owned, and local reports indicate the tank farm hasn't been used in eight years. Anything left in the tanks has likely broken down, oxidized, and is unusable. It appears this is part of the ongoing infrastructure destruction Russia is doing across Ukraine.

It appears Ukraine and Russia (and militias) have, for the most part, honored the ceasefire for Mariupol, and mass evacuations are ongoing. That is based on MSM reports. I took a quick look at NASA FIRMS and it is possible that Chechen forces on the eastern side of the city have not honored the ceasefire, with signs of fresh fighting. It is possible that the hot spots are fires still burning from the heavy fighting that happened yesterday.

Analysts we work with are very encouraged that Ukrainian forces are close to breaking the encirclement of Chernihiv, making fast progress heading south from the city. Additionally, they are starting to share our view that the supply lines and troops from Sumy to outside Brovary are cut off from retreating to the east and facing superior forces to the west.

If there is a breakthrough at Chernihiv, the only city under Russian control and/or fully encircled with 200K more people are Kherson and Mariupol. 

Written on the fly, please forgive typos.