Russia-Ukraine Flash Report: 4-7-22 13:00 PDT

Drone video released today shows a Ukrainian BTR-4 engaging two Russian tanks, likely older T-64 (upgraded) or T-72 models in the southwest suburbs of Mariupol.

The  BTR-4 destroys both tanks, and this video reveals a lot of information on the broader situations in the encircled city.

NASA FIRMS has been indicating heavy fighting in the southwest region of Mariupol, west of the port. This area was believed to be firmly under Russian control. This engagement shows that it is disputed.

Additionally, the Ukrainian resistance still has operational armor and can engage the enemy directly.

In the April 6 SITREP we suggested that Russia had lost territory it controlled in the center of Mariupol, based on NASA FIRMS data and a lack of Russian State Media reports from that part of the city.

That assessment was correct, and the areas in dispute are significantly larger than previously thought. We no longer believe the city is bisected. In our assessment Russian forces on the west side of the city can push Ukrainian forces back, but lack the manpower to maintain control newly acquired territory. We continue to believe that Chechen troops in the eastern side of the city have been ineffective in taking and holding new territory. 

This raises additional questions about how and if Ukrainian forces are being resupplied, to what degree, and how robust the encirclement is. There are a range of theories and rumors that Ukrainian forces are being resupplied but nothing has or can be confirmed.

Closing thought, the Ukrainian BTR-4 rate of fire and rapid target acquisition is impressive. The Russia-Ukraine war is not the first combat engagement for the Ukrainian designed and produced vehicle. They were used by the Iraqi military in 2014 and were equally successful.