Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-14-22 09:15 PDT: Moskva Update

In today's episode of "The Fog of War, Choose Your Own Adventure," let's count all the stories on the Moskva and the Kremlin's changing position.

What We Know with Confidence

The Moskva had an incident that resulted in a fire, explosion, and the crew abandoned the ship. All communications and the transponder stopped on the vessel. The warship is no longer operational and has no value as a military asset.

What We're Hearing

Missile Strike: Ukraine states they struck the Moskva with two Neptune missiles. Russia's position is the ship had an accident. That position has evolved. Russian state media is now stating the Moskva was fired upon, and the ship intercepted two missiles.

Sinking: A very credible report was made last night that the Moskva had sunk. The SITREP was late last night because we tried to untangle the conflicting data. Pro-Russia accounts started changing stories, indicating the ship had sunk. In the SITREP, we hedged our bets, "The operational loss of the missile cruiser Moskva is a significant loss for Russian naval and antiaircraft operations."

A Turkish official speaking anonymously said the Moskva sunk.

Ukrainian officials did not increase the number of ships sunk in its daily report of Russian losses, nor have they claimed the Moskva was sunk.

Russia this morning has two versions of the story. The fires are out, and the ship will be towed to Sevastopol. The second version is the vessel is already back at its dock in Sevastopol.

The United States said the ship has not sunk and is sailing under its own power in an easterly direction.

Russian State Media is telling the public next to nothing beyond the ship had a fire.

A credible source analyzing satellite data and shipping traffic in the area reported available information does not support the Moskva being towed or moving under its own power. The assist ships in the area are not moving in a pattern that would indicate a towing operation. On the contrary, they are moving in a way that would indicate a search and rescue or antimine operation is ongoing.

Damage

Military officials and journalists are tossing a lot of adjectives around - severely, extensively, badly, significantly. The Russian version is the missile launchers are intact, and the ship will be repaired. Western naval experts have a far more pessimistic assessment. Fire and explosion, followed by a decision to abandon the vessel in poor weather, indicate the captain assessed the ship was sinking and there was no longer a way to prevent the outcome. If the Moskva didn't sink, she is "done," as one former US naval commander said.

Who Did It

We have three versions now of how it happened. The first Russian version is an accident that led to a fire and ammunition exploding. Ukraine is stating the ship was hit by two Neptune missiles they fired. Russia is now saying that NATO was involved with an explosion, but they are still not framing it as an attack.

Who is Watching

A USAF Globalhawk drone is keeping a very watchful eye on the situation. It is flying over the Black Sea, south of the incident. Publicly available satellite and maritime data are being analyzed, and open-source intelligence continues to monitor communications. Radio traffic related to Moskva is encrypted and encoded. Turkey is likely to use its assets to evaluate the situation due to its maritime interests.

Misinformation

Any videos or still photos currently circulating allegedly showing the Moskva being hit by a missile or on fire are fakes. Any video or pictures from the surface would come from Russian sources.

What Does the Team Think

We think we picked the wrong week to stop drinking. We also believe the Moskva is no longer an available asset to support combat operations in the Black Sea.

What are we Looking For

The more prominent role of the Moskva was providing antiaircraft and antiship support for other Russian warships in the area. A withdrawal of naval assets further off the coast of Ukraine would not be an admission by action that a missile strike was successful. If Russia does not move other naval assets closer to Ukrainian waters after the incident, it would indicate a significant concern about future missiles or airstrikes.

What is the Impact

With the loss of an LLS, two more damaged, with one reportedly badly, and the known operational loss of the Moskva, Russia's ability to launch an amphibious assault is significantly degraded. Turkey stated on February 28 that the only warships it will allow to pass into the Black Sea are those returning to their homeport. Russia could attempt to move a different asset into the Black Sea, but that would require a confrontation with Turkey and NATO by proxy.

The impact on the broader Russian navy is significant, representing a one-third loss of all operational guided missile cruisers.