Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-26-22 11:00 PDT - Russia Goes All In

It looks like the offensive push in the east has started today in earnest, and Russian forces are going all in.

We are reading reports of 5 to 8 BTGs pushing south from Izyum, but we don't know how combat effective these units are or how accurate those numbers are.

Goal one - encircle Severodonetsk: No significant progress

Goal two - extend west from Severodonetsk salient to Slovyansk - progress

Goal three - advance to Slovyansk along the eastern shore of the Oskil River from Izyum - significant progress

Goal four - wider encirclement of Ukrainian forces by capturing Barvinkove - no to very little progress

A lot of confusing information. Here is what we think this morning look at the data we trust - a lot of locations will be listed as "contested" because there is so much contrary information.

Severodonetsk Ukrainian Salient:

• Rubizhne - disputed - majority Ukrainian control - Chechens make another false claim the city has been captured which indicates no progress 
• Oleksandrivka (Donetsk Oblast - east of Severodonetsk) - disputed - majority Ukrainian control
• Severodonetsk - Ukrainian control
• Lysychansk - Ukrainian control
• Popasna - disputed - no change since last week, heavy fighting today
• Pevomaisyk - Ukrainian counteroffensive - Russian control - quick assessment - likely trying to disrupt lines of supply and communication to Popasnya
• Borovenyky - Unknown - NASA FIRMS data shows fires/artillery strikes but there is no information from the city anywhere on what is happening

Severodonetsk Western Advance

• Kreminna - Russian control - no change - there are reports of fighting but we cannot confirm
• Stara Krasnyanka - Russian control - no change
• Torske - Russian control (captured 4/24-4/25)
• Zarichne - majority Russian control and likely full Russian control - we rate this disputed for now - 4/26
• Lyman - Ukrainian control
• Yampil - Disputed - ongoing heavy fighting - the main line of contact
• Drovinka - Ukrainian control

Izyum Eastern Shore of Oskil River Russian Offensive

• Rubtsi - captured by Russia (4/26)
• Yatskivka - captured by Russia (4/26)
• Krymky - disputed - ongoing heavy fighting - the main line of contact - there are reports that both belligerents are suffering heavy losses
• Oskil - Ukrainian control - forces at moderate risk of encirclement

Izyum Western Shore of Oskil River Russian Offensive

• Mayak - heavy fighting - Russian forces trying to advance west toward Barvinkove - main line of contact - no territorial change
• Novopavlivka - unknown - likely disputed control
• Husarivka - disputed - heavy fighting - liberated by Ukraine 4/23 - main line of contact