Housekeeping for 5-17-22 16:00 PDT - No SITREP Today

Hey everyone! I'm taking Dr. Mrs. Malcontent out to dinner for our wedding anniversary. Because your EIC/CCO won't be around to edit and review, we won't do a SITREP. I've held off announcing because I wanted to feel confident there wasn't a major development that needed coverage. At least as of right now, it is mostly the same as yesterday.

Russia made small games around Popasna and chipped away at some territory around Donetsk city. Civilian areas of Bakhumt (Donbas - Luhansk-Donetsk border) were shelled by Russian forces. Russian forces also destroyed a German-owned sheetrock factory in Soledar near Bakhumt. Bakhumt is important because its capture would impact the Ground Line of Communication (supply line) into Severodonetsk. Thankfully, Russian forces are focusing on civilians and civilian infrastructure, while wasting resources and equipment that could be used against Ukrainian forces.

Opinion: At least they're consistent.

Ukraine is gaining ground west of Izyum, and artillery is inching closer to hitting the city itself. Ukrainian artillery (likely NATO M777A2 or other NATO 155mm equipment such as CEASAR) hit Russian positions in Hlyns'ke, 6 kilometers from the center of Izyum city.

It appears Ukrainian forces are doing something east of the Siverskyi Donets River - about 50 kilometers east of Kharkiv city, but still a lot of vague reports. We're pretty convinced they are over the river and likely in a larger force than we believed this morning. We don't know how they got there or the size of the force and we don't have any resources in that area who can share more info with us (and we probably wouldn't share if we knew - OPSEC). We don't put much weight into the reports about Vovchansk.

Pro-Russian accounts are making a lot of wild declarations about Azovstal being cleared and mass surrenders while replaying the same videos and showing the same buses over and over and over again. Look to who is running the show for real information. The Russian Ministry of Defense, Red Cross, and United Nations have said nothing. The Ukrainian government has said they have no further comments due to the delicate nature of the operation. Anyone speculating right now is just heading into a world of disappointment.

Colonel Denis Kozlov, commander of the 12th Separate Guards Engineering Brigade was killed leading the bridging attempts at Bilohorivka. Now we know the third BTG involved in the disaster.

Captain 3rd rank Roman Pasynkov who served in the Black Sea Fleet's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade was killed (equal to a major - Naval Infantry equals marines) in combat. He was the head of the service department of the military service troops of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. The head of the service department does not sound like a person who should have been in combat.

The rouble was flat in exchange with the USD. Something totally weird, WTI oil is more expensive than Brent (you won't see that very often). WTI went up to $114 while Brent dropped to $112. US gasoline was down 5 cents a gallon, wholesale.

France says it will dramatically increase the amount of support and weapons it is sending to Ukraine - but didn't say anything else. Turkey says, OK, we'll let Sweden and Finland into the club but you need to sell us F-35s, let us buy Russian S-400 antiaircraft systems, stop supporting the PKK, and lift some sanctions - and we're all good.

If the United States Senate does not authorize the $40 billion spending package for Ukraine by May 19 - it will cut off continued military aid shipments to Ukraine. The checkbook is close to zero. In theory, Biden could use Lend-Lease as a bridge, but doubt he wants to use that option.