Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 06 SEP 2022 06:00 PDT - Ukraine Opens Second Counteroffensive

Izyum.

It's Izyum.

Two weeks ago, one of the belligerents blew up the bridge at Bairak. A few days later, Russian state media news organization IZ recorded a staged video of Russian forces firing over the Siverskyi Donets at Ukrainian positions in Bairak in the area of the bridge. We updated the map, listed Bairak as liberated,  and coded the small offensive. Quietly, this raised our eyebrows. Blowing up a bridge (in this example) was a defensive move. Balakiya is a fortress. Why would Russia be worried here?

Here is what we know.

Early this morning (Pacific Time), Ukrainian forces advanced from the northwest and liberated Verbivka. They caught Russian forces by surprise, and an unconfirmed report was that a large Russian ammunition depot was captured.

Ukrainian forces pressed through and are within the critical city of Balakliya. The city is a critical supply and transit hub for Russia and has been under Russian control almost since the start of the invasion. Rivers surround the city.

Reports indicate that Russian forces have abandoned the checkpoints on the side of the advance, and Ukrainian forces are in the city. Russian troops are reportedly blowing up the bridges connecting Balakiya to the rest of the Izyum axis. We haven't verified this yet, but if it is true, that is a textbook indication Russia is withdrawing. 

There is a massive amount of Russian military equipment in Balakliya. The objective here if this is an advance, is crystal clear - Vesele. The highway junction at Vesele would be a crippling blow to the Izyum front to the south and would sever one of two GLOCs (supply lines) supporting the Izyum axis.

NASA FIRMS is suggesting fighting or artillery strikes in Russian-controlled Dovhalivka and attacks on the main Russian GLOC (supply line) at Vysheva. There is a lot of Russian aviation, particularly helicopters, providing close air support for Russian troops.

Long-term subscribers also know I have excellent contacts in this region, which has shaped our analysis. I can share this. There have been a significant number of HIMARS strikes within Izyum itself, northwest, northeast, and north on key targets for ammunition, troop concentrations, equipment, and command and control.

Ukraine has been shaping this front since June.

We cannot confirm Pro-Russian account reports that Ukraine is also attacking from the south of Izyum in force. We just don't have the information to support the claims.

We had assessed in June that if either belligerent reached the point of combat destroyed, there would be a multi-axes collapse, and it would come quickly. Not quite to the point of writing, "here we are."

But with the gains in Luhansk in the last 48 hours, Donetsk, the pushback at Soledar and Kodema, the advances in Zaporizhia, and the retaking of the Butivka Mine Shaft complex, here we are.

This is an audacious plan, but this has almost certainly paralyzed Russian commanders who have a theaterwide reserve of maybe, MAYBE, 25,000 troops that need to go into multiple locations. Izyum is the worst-case scenario for Russia because Ukraine has a much shorter geographical distance to travel, and liberated territories don't require a heavily armed occupation force.

Given that we were on the brink of labeling the activity on Izyum a counteroffensive - this is the tipping point. Ukraine has opened a second front.