Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 08 SEP 2022 13:15 PDT - Ukraine Keeps Rolling

The link to the map is here - but honestly, by the time this is published, it will almost certainly be out of date.

TL;DR

Ukraine has now advanced 50 kilometers in 48 hours, liberating 700 square kilometers of Kharkiv oblast. That is an area equivalent to the New York, New York Borough, or the country of Bahrain.

Russia has now lost about 500 square kilometers of territorial gains since the Kherson counteroffensive started on August 29.

The Facts

• Balakliya is liberated - as we felt (can't assess) yesterday, the Wagner PMC posts on Telegram were just bluster
• Ukrainian forces have captured the "arsenal" and all remaining equipment and ammunition intact
• Bryhadyrivka is liberated - video shows a Russian convoy was smashed to pieces
• Ukraine is pressing Vesele and Kunje - the capture of these two towns would be a catastrophe for Russian troops in Izyum
• Credible reports Ukraine has liberated Shevchenkove - which was under defended with Russian forces fleeing ahead of the advance
• Extremely credible reports that Russian forces are fleeing Kupyansk and reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources fighting for control of Kupyansk have begun
• Russian Ministry of Defense said they are "sending reinforcements" to Kupyansk - at the risk of a loss of objectivity, this is some hardcore Max Steiner will save us vibes - "reinforcements" are likely shattered BTGs that were sent off the front lines to get consolidated being rushed to the front - they'll be met by fleeing Russian troops
• Multiple videos of captured Russian air defense equipment - the defensive lines completely collapsed
• Ukrainian casualties are starting to pile up - not critical and not outside of expectations, but this has not been bloodless for Ukraine
• Ukraine has made a breakthrough north of Kherson - don't have a lot of information about it, but Russian Telegram is losing their minds over it
• Videos from Russian troops are showing ferry crossings across the Dnipro happening under indirect artillery fire - this can't be good for morale 
• Claims of Russian artillery and air superiority in Kharkiv/Izyum are false - and repeated claims that the bridgehead on the Inhulets will collapse by tomorrow  (and tomorrow, and tomorrow, and come back tomorrow) are also false

What's All Mean

So why so much disinformation from the Russian Ministry of Defense?

We are told because the Russian ERA secure communications system has been a complete failure and due to a lack of radios, Russian troops in forward operating bases are getting most of their information from Russian Telegram channels and off the Internet. I know that is really hard to believe. That's what we're being told, and I can't verify the veracity of it.

The communications of all is well, we are winning, and aviation and artillery are stopping the advances are to keep Russian troops from fleeing. It also is keeping them from being prepared for the coming advance - and if they were properly equipped, trained, and had an NCO corps, radios, and high morale, they wouldn't have to lie to the frontline defenders.

Our concern over Ukraine running too far ahead of its supply lines in Kharkiv/Izyum is tempered because so much equipment, ammunition, and fuel have been captured that can be pressed into immediate service for Ukraine. We have reported the frontier to the west of the Oskil was as porous as Swiss cheese, but even we didn't expect it to be this underdefended. We believe they will stop at Kupyansk and will have to work quickly to reinforce their new GLOCs and defensive lines. Russia will hit back.

The capture of the railyards in Kupyansk would be a devastating blow for everything south of there all the way to Izyum and east to Lyman. It would essentially sever the main highway intersections as well as two main rail lines from Russia. The capture of Vesele/Kunje and Shevchenkove destroys the GLOC to Izyum in three locations and brings the remaining back roads under Ukrainian fire control.

Ukrainian artillery and elite military units that know the woods south of Izyum have effectively contained Russian troops within the area. Russian units in the "Sherwood Forest" are isolated, cut off, and already low on supplies. It is quite possible they don't even know about the storm that is coming.

HIMARS and artillery strikes on Izyum and Kupyansk are almost constant now. We can share that since late July, dozens of HIMARS strikes across the region north of Izyum have killed hundreds of Russian troops and PMC Wagner mercenaries and destroyed equipment and command centers. Most people know about the strikes on ammunition depots since July because they're impossible to hide. There have been dozens of strikes. The insurgency is far more low-key in this area, but they have been very active in reporting Russian troop movements and locations.

If all these Russian GLOCs are cut off, the only way out of Izyum for Russian troops is to the east through Oskil, over the temporary low water crossing they built west of the dam, and then north through Borova. 

Ukrainian forces are already in or near Pasika, southeast of Izyum, and only have to advance 3 kilometers to take the bridge at Yaremvika. 

A Russian advance to the south to attempt a run on Slovyansk will be met by the Ukrainian troops flooding into Balakliya chasing them. The fact that Russian troops have moved from Lyman to Pisky Radkivski indicates they are already planning a retreat and intend to defend the road east of the Oskil at Pisky Radkivski.

This a reminder that the bridge over the Oskil at Borova is destroyed; although specialized amphibious vehicles can ford the river - Kamaz trucks and tanks can't.

Prediction for retreat - if it all falls apart, expect a major battle in Borova because the roads there will enable a retreat to the east for Russian troops to Svatove are located there.

Finally, if Russia had significant reserve forces, they would have used them weeks ago to advance on Slovyansk, and they wouldn't be withdrawing from Lyman and appearing to give up the forested areas north of Siverskyi Donetsk between Lyman and Ozerne. This counteroffensive was opportunistic because so many Russian units got drawn down and sent to Zaporizhia. The drawdown started in June when units were sent to Severodonetsk, Hirske-Zolote, and Lysychansk. Yes, they helped push Ukrainian forces out and became combat destroyed in the process.

We are not stunned at the success of this advance. We have been saying this counteroffensive was coming since June and predicted the hit would come from the west in the area of Mospanove (we were off by two towns, but I'll keep the team anyway). We are stunned at how fast the advance has happened in 2022. If you had told us three months ago, when we declared the front was starting to freeze in place, there would be a Blitzkrieg-grade advance by either belligerent in September, we would have been skeptical.

So why is Ukraine so much more "successful" in Kharkiv/Izyum than in Kherson?

• Russia moved their reserve forces to Kherson in anticipation of the counteroffensive
• The VDV and naval infantry (Marines) deployed in Kherson are well trained and committed - these are Russia's best troops
• Kherson is extremely difficult territory - we've assessed that since April 
• Defensive lines in Kherson are not porous, they are well-established with a concentration of artillery firepower
• The terrain of the steppe favors Russian tactics and training
• Kharkiv/Izyum has been shaped since May
• The terrain in this area favors Ukrainian tactics and training
• Russia doesn't have a reserve force here and pulled almost every available experienced unit out of the region starting in June
• We have written deep investigation reports on how the main body of Wagner units in this region are Imperial Legion Neo-Nazi terrorists - bluntly put, and I own this evaluation - as a conflict reporter, one thing I've learned - Neo-Nazis are cowards when anyone fights back - that's it - the end - so the bulk of "strength of force" in Izyum are Nazi cowards, and that isn't propaganda or hyperbole - some Wagners will fight hard, but others are going to buckle when they face real combat with their backs to the wall, and they realize, they are the meat - not the DNR/LNR conscripts they've been sending to their deaths for months

This confirms one thing. Our assessment on June 13 that if either belligerent reached a state of combat destroyed, there would be a rapid collapse on at least one axis was accurate. Here we are.

In other news, congratulations to Russia on the capture of Pisky - it looks like they really did it.