Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 10 SEP 2022 04:55 PDT - Russians Retreating from Svatove

Svatove is in Luhansk Oblast and is 50 kilometers east of the line of conflict (well, it was, but we don't exactly know where the line of conflict is). Russian state media shared videos and reports and showed the long line of vehicles heading east to the Russian border.

Video is published with Ukrainian forces in Izyum.

Russian proxy forces are seething over the Svatove retreat because it could leave them trapped as they try to leave Izyum. The conclusion in the Russian information space is Kharkiv is lost and likely half of Luhansk in the coming weeks.

In my exhausted state:

• Our assessment that the Russian Ministry of Defense would work to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk regardless of the cost was accurate
• Our assessment that the Russian military within Ukraine became combat destroyed after the Luhansk campaign was accurate
• Our assessment that if either belligerent became combat destroyed, there would be a multi-axis collapse, and it would happen fast was accurate
• Our assessment of where the Kherson counteroffensive would start and how it would be executed was accurate
• Our assessment that Russia lacked the troops to secure their gains in the Donbas, even in the short term, was accurate

What's next? Very hard to say because it is moving so fast, and I need to sleep. If the widespread withdrawal of Russian forces in the north is true, it is likely the Kremlin is working to declare the "special military operation" over and another gesture of goodwill.

Two other things. First, there are reports from Ukrainian officials that there has been a major breakthrough in Kherson with an advance in the "tens of kilometers," but they aren't saying where. An announcement is going to come soon.

Second, there are reports that Ukraine has launched a meaty counteroffensive west of Donetsk city and taken the Vesele, including the airport. We can't confirm that report, but that would be extremely significant if true.

Closing thought. Ukraine raising the flag on Kremenets Mountain, which will almost certainly happen by Sunday Kyiv time, will be their Iwo Jima moment.