Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 30 JUN 2022 13:15 PDT - Ukraine is Getting Tanks

At a speech in Madrid, Spain. United States President Joe Biden announced that a coalition of more than 50 nations working with NATO, has pledged a massive amount of new weapons to Ukraine to fight against the Russian invasion:

• 600 tanks
• 140,000 antitank weapons (that is almost double the number of tanks on the entire planet)
• 500 artillery "systems" - enough to equip 83 batteries (companies) and 21 battalions
• 600,000 NATO 155mm artillery shells
• Unspecified antiship and antiaircraft "systems"

Additionally, President Biden announced another $800 million military aid package to Ukraine that includes "an advanced air defense system," additional artillery, more ammunition, and additional HIMARS rockets.

This is in addition to the pledges made earlier this week by several European nations to provide self-propelled artillery units and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

ASSESSMENT: The significant part of this announcement is the tanks and enough artillery pieces to create four full artillery brigades with spares. The second piece is 600 tanks, which is a massive injection of desperately needed armor to engage in Kherson and Zaporizhia. 

In our assessments, we have stated that NATO needed to lift its unofficial ban on exporting main battle tanks to Ukraine. The timing of the countrywide cruise missile strikes on Ukraine, which began on June 25, was a political blunder by the Kremlin.

Prior to the dramatic increase of attacks on non-military targets, there were indications that support to aid Ukraine for a true victory and the restoration of pre-2014 borders was off the table.

These new commitments, along with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, is a solid indication that NATO and the Western Allies are committed to the restoration of pre-March 2014 borders. The question of the Crimea Peninsula is yet to be answered.