Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 18 JUL 2022 10:30 PDT - Kadyrov Gets Nervous

Your humble Malcontent has had a quiet and slow-growing admiration for Alexander Luchenshankka, the disputed president of Belarus. He has demonstrated in 2022 that he is a very shrewd politician. Yes, his country has been forced into default, and the Russian Federation is raiding his ammunition supplies. He is even more of an outcast on the world stage than he was 12 months ago.

However, Luchenshankka has had to balance the demands of the Kremlin while keeping his nation out of the war in Ukraine and preventing his own people from staging an overthrow attempt. Unlike Lando Calrissian in Star Wars, he has been able to avoid a Darth Vader...President Putin checkmate. He does just enough to keep the Kremlin happy while consistently wriggling free of having to commit to a war that, in my personal assessment, he doesn't want.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, you have Major General Ramzan Kadyrov, the self-styled leader of Chechenya. He has demonstrated the political intelligence of a 15-year-old that lives off Red Bull and Snickers bars. A man-child who learned human relations from Grand Theft Auto, combat skills from Call of Duty, and how to perform dentistry from watching the movie Marathon Man.

At the opening of the war, Kadyrov happily sent his Kadyrovites to Ukraine. The elite, battle-hardened, ruthless forces with a reputation for merciless execution of orders at home and in Syria. Initially, Kadyrovites enjoyed a rear guard roll where they made a lot of TikTok videos, looted, raped, murdered, and fought with local militias over their behavior.

After the fall of Mariupol, they took their road show to the Donbas, as people in power got fed up with their antics. Russian soldiers, local militias, and even the terrorists of the Imperial Legion fighting for PMC Wagner Group were complaining publicly about their behavior, their combat tactics, and how they contribute - nothing.

The Kadyrovites got their TikTok access taken away and were sent to the front. In part because Russia was running out of its own light infantry, and the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic were decimated. It went about as well as expected, the Kadyrovites were all but wiped out.

Unlike Luchenshankka, Kadyrov doubled down on his strategy. He sent thousands of Chechen National Guard troops and has hurriedly trained replacement Kadyrovites that don't have the same capabilities as the elite forces lost forever in Ukraine. In Zaporizhia, Chechen National Guard troops are suffering a 30% casualty rate - per month. A half-strength battalion of 500 troops on a six-month rotation will have 40 to 50 return to Chechenya alive and uninjured.

Kadyrov shares something with Luchenshankka, both are only a misstep away from an attempt to overthrow their respective governments. Kadyrov is a popular guy - in his own mind.

Given the rival factions in Chechnya, I have wondered if others were watching. Watching the number of troops within the country get smaller. Watching the equipment flowing out of Chechnya to Ukraine, to never return. Watching the rockets and shells leave in trucks and trains to turn Ukrainian villages into dust. Was there a tipping point where rival factions would see that their moment had come? Would Kadyrov strip his own military forces down to an untenable state? 

If Luchenshankka has been masterfully playing chess against the Kremlin to stay in power, Kadyrov has been playing checkers while blindfolded, You don't need a political science degree to figure out that in the end, Moscow has no loyalty to Kadyrov, and a weakened Chechnya provides an opportunity to fully take over the region - not cut convenient deals with a warlord who does the dirty work. They've got the Imperial Legion and PMC Wagner Group for that now, and they're both doing a much better job.

Don. But I am a great leader. Don. My people love me. Don. See how they cheer me at the annual execution festival? Don. Today Lysychansk, tomorrow Kyiv, and next week, don, the world! Don.

Today, the spokesman of the opposition battalion named after Sheikh Mansur, Islam Belokiev, said that the Ichkerians had started preparations for hostilities in Chechnya. There is an intensive collection of information on cities where the Russians are deployed and they are planning for attacks.

Kadyrov, whose parliamentary leader only last week declared that Chechnya was fighting a jihad all the way to Berlin, is asking for air defense systems from Russia - something that is in short supply because of the war in Ukraine. Additionally, there is growing evidence that Russia does not have the electronics to replace a dwindling supply of S-300 antiaircraft missiles to operate in a surface-to-air role. Even Putin admitted today that sanctions on electronics had dealt a major blow to the Russian economy and war effort.

Don. But I need weapons and help because, don, the opposition.

Luchenshankka has worked to hold his power, while Kadyrov has weakened his position at home enough that his opposition sees a chance to rid Chechnya of his rule. If that were to happen, you have to be careful about what you wish for - Kadyrov's replacement could be worse.

A ruthless strongman should know that if they are deposed from power and the opposition captures him, Kadyrov will be shown the same mercy and pity that he has shown his victims over the years.

Further, it's unclear how much the Kremlin would want him around as a deposed leader with only squads of fanatics left to command. They wouldn't just be mad at the west and NATO. They would view the fall of a dear leader as a stab in the back from the Christian Orthodox Russian leadership.

Don.