Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 22 JUL 2022 14:30 PDT - Still Nothing

Today was truly the quietest day for combat operations in Ukraine for Russian forces.

• No attempted advances in the South Donbas
• No attempted advances in Kherson
• No attempted advances in Kharkiv
• No attempted advances south of Izyum

The Russian attempt to advance from the oil refinery in Luhansk with reserve armor was a disaster. They never reached the outskirts of Verkhnokamyanske, let alone attempt an advance on Hryhorivka. There is a video that shows the column being decimated.

Russian forces lost an entire battery (company, which right now for Russia is like losing a Battalion Tactical Group) west of Izyum in "Sherwood Forest." Eight artillery pieces and the forward ammunition depot. The loss may be one of the reasons there hasn't been any attempted offensive south of Izyum in the last 48 hours. 

The only glimmer of a bright spot for Russian forces was the destruction of a small Ukrainian convoy (5 vehicles) near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant. The video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense was undated, however.

The mood of Pro-Russian milbloggers, social media influencers, and unaffiliated journalists is souring. Armchair Warlord restricted his account on Twitter, declaring "mission accomplished" in a swan song tweet. We noted Rybar's dim assessment of Russian troop strength and the quality of replacements yesterday.

In the Luhansk oblasts, hundreds of thousands fled the Russian advance. For example, 95% of Severodonetsk and 90% of Lysychansk left the city. Russian forces have conscripted and forced conscripted almost every available male between 18 and 65. Private Military Company Wagner Group, supported by terrorists of the Imperial Legion, has been the primary light infantry resource east of Bakhmut/Soledar and south of Izyum. They have lost many of their most skilled mercenaries and have lowered recruiting standards to include criminals and those without combat experience.

We are seeing a massive increase in Russian state media-sponsored disinformation. There is a report today from TASS of a new "brigade" that has been formed in Kherson that will lead the advance to capture Odesa.

Yes, you read that right. Odesa. They claim the brigade (which would be, on paper, four BTGs) is made up of citizens from Kherson and Odesa who want to fight against the Ukrainian Nazis. The video clip showed less than 20 soldiers who were not fresh volunteers but clearly VDV based on their uniforms and equipment. It is all a farce. But this is why the average Russian is convinced that everything is going to plan.

It no longer appears that Russian forces are setting conditions for a more significant advance on Siversk or Bakhmut/Soledar. A massive artillery barrage would precede both, and so far, that has not happened.

All eyes are on Kherson now. Ukraine is setting conditions for a larger offensive, but there aren't any signs of an imminent broader operation. It is worth noting that Ukrainian military commanders said they would be in a place to take the initiative between late July and the end of August.

Here we are.

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