Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 26 JUL 2022 10:30 PDT - General Update

Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant on July 25 and terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion with PMC Wagner Group moved in. It appears the withdrawal was a tactical decision.

Russian forces have been attempting to secure the power plant since Ukrainian forces withdrew to the west side of the reservoir on May 23.

We are working on verifying some unconfirmed reports:

• Terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion with PMC Wagner Group are claiming they have taken full control of Pokrovske.
• There is a report that the Russian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - supply line) from Yatskivka to Bohorodychne has collapsed. The report claims that Russian forces have fully withdrawn from Yatskivka and Studenok because of inadequate troop strength.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops attempted an advance through the Sviati Hory National Park, which is east of Slovyansk

PMC Wagner Group does not have a track record of making inflated claims - but the northern 3/4 of Pokrovske is largely a no man's land, and Ukraine holds fire control over the settlement. Any advance is likely temporary like we've seen in Berestove.

Russian forces have been attempting to advance past Bohorodychne since May 23 with almost daily attacks. If casualties (KIA, WIA, MIA) were 20 a day, Russia would have lost almost 1,300 troops in 64 days trying to secure a single village. Ukrainian losses are almost certainly lower because most attacks have been repelled by artillery and armor with light infantry support.

The questions are:

• Is Russia changing strategy and will attempt a wet crossing of the Siverskyi Donets west of Lyman?
• Did Russia really withdraw from Yatskivka and Studenok? If they did what was the reason and can we tease that out from the data or through our contacts?

The map has been updated to reflect everything that happened on July 25 and into the morning of July 26. We did not move the line of conflict in Pokrovske until there is more information, the disputed territory area is unchanged.

We did move the line of conflict in the Svitlodarsk bulge and the contested areas around Bilohorivka [Luhansk] and the Svitlodarsk bulge.

Russian forces hit the resort village of Zatoka with Kh-59 cruise missiles striking residential neighborhoods and hotels. Once again there were no secondary explosions or major fires to indicate weapon caches, ammo depots, or fuel supplies. There are, however, a lot of destroyed cottages and dachas. 

In our assessment, Zatoka, the beachside town, has no strategic or tactical value. The Zatoka Bridge, several kilometers northeast of today's strikes, has been disabled since early May. NATO anti-ship systems and other defenses didn't start to arrive in significant quantities until after the bridge was disabled, and it is severely damaged. It is extremely unlikely that there are any weapon caches of significance in Zatoka beyond existing, pre-war, territorial defense.

It would be, in a word, ludicrous, to suggest that the hotels were used as barracks. The only possible way for troops to move in and out is through Moldova right on the Transnistria border. Large groups of troops moving on that route would risk expanding the war, and it seems incredibly unlikely that the FSB and Transnistrian authorities would shrug off large troop movements just meters from their border.

Ukraine destroyed a fuel depot in Donetsk with HIMARS. Local officials shared the damage on Russian state media and showed shrapnel collected from the site that was rhombus shaped. That supports the strike was made by HIMARS.

Lastly, there are some mainstream media stories already declaring the Kherson counteroffensive dead. 

Ugh.

If people are expecting World War II, Patton's III Army breakthrough in August 1944 and racing eastward until they moved off the map and outstripped their supply lines, they're of course going to be disappointed.

The battle for Kherson oblast will take months. It will resemble the battle for the Pacific in World War II and the island hopping strategy of the United States Navy and Marines.

If we stay with that analogy the Battle of Midway, which was a strategic defeat for Japan and put the nation on the permanent defensive through the rest of World War II, was just fought - but it was fought in the Donbas, not in Kherson.

Right now Ukraine is fighting "naval battles" to clear sea lanes and prepare for "beach" landings. Instead of oceans, it is open fields of wheat. Instead of islands, it is small villages between the open fields that are heavily reinforced by Russian troops.

Instead of sinking destroyers, aircraft carriers, and battleships, Ukraine needs to destroy artillery, air defenses, and tank groupings. Otherwise trying to move troops 10 kilometers through open wheat fields to the next town will be a disaster.

The United States didn't start to make real progress in the Pacific until 1944, grinding down the Japanese navy in countless smaller engagements.

This is going to take a long time.