Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 26 JUL 2022 12:30 PDT - There's Something Happening Here
Added 2022-07-26 19:27:41 +0000 UTCWe have very reliable reports of a significant Russian troop withdrawal from the Izyum axis. Troops are moving north on the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - supply line) east of the Oskil River. Reliable sources are reporting that the Russian field hospital in Borova has been closed and the patients moved north.
There are pictures of a large fire within Borova, indicating a likely HIMARS strike on the railroad line and warehouses adjacent to them. The map has been updated.
We have marked a large area as contested southeast of Izyum and we have changed Bohorodychne as under Ukrainian control.
It appears there is a change in strategy happening and the Russian Ministry of Defense is giving up on advancing toward Slovyansk from the north. There has been some increased activity west of Lyman by Russian forces, but that would require bridging attempts to prepare for an advance toward Slovyansk.
We had assessed in late June while respecting Operational Security, that there is more going on southeast of Chuhuiv, about 80 kilometers southeast of Kharkiv, than what is being reported.
Are Russian forces being redeployed to shore up this region to protect the GLOCs coming out of Belgorod? Is this part of the "we have not yet begun to fight" and we're taking more than the Donbas announcement to focus on Kharkiv? Has troop strength reached a point that Russia is 'giving up" the southern part of the Izyum axis on their own terms before it becomes a rout?
Because Russian troops are moving north this does not appear to be an attempt to shore up the stalled-out offensive toward Siversk, or to redeploy towards Bakhmut.
Is this an attempt to draw Ukrainian troop strength away from Kherson by making the Izyum axis weaker?
The chessboard just got very interesting.