Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 9 AUG 2022 10:30 PDT - 2 Long Distance "Accidents"

Four events in the last 72 hours are raising legitimate questions about Ukrainian military capabilities. Has the United States quietly provided Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS)?

ATACMS, officially, is considered a short-range missile with a range of 310 kilometers. Ukraine has pleaded for ATACMS, and the missiles are launched from M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) vehicles. Officially, the United States has refused to provide the missiles due to concerns they could be used to strike targets within Russia, causing the war to escalate beyond the borders of Ukraine.

So what four events are forming a pattern?

1) Over the weekend, Pro-Russian social media channels shared pictures of parts of an alleged NATO AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) used to target and destroy radar installations. The pictures' veracity was immediately questioned because it was believed that Ukraine had nothing within its inventory that could use the AGM-88.

2) On Monday, Colin Khal, United States Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, confirmed that the United States had provided Ukraine with “some” HARM missiles, and Ukraine's Soviet-era aircraft had been modified to support NATO weapon systems.

This revelation taught us two things. First, the Pentagon isn't sharing every detail on which weapons are being provided to Ukraine. Second, either former Warsaw Pact Soviet-era aircraft were already modified to support NATO weapons systems, and that technology was shared with Ukraine, or Ukrainian and NATO engineers cobbled together a solution so Ukraine could utilize NATO air-to-ground and potentially air-to-air and/or air-to-ship weapons.

That's a big revelation. The CANBUS of Soviet-era aircraft is not compatible with NATO aircraft. Think of it as trying to connect an older computer printer with only a USB-A cable to an iMac, and all you have is Windows drivers. It's not happening. The iMac doesn't have a USB-A port and won't know what to do with Windows drivers. You need a dongle and the right drivers to make it all work. Apparently, that work has been done for at least the Mig-29. In theory, if a Mig-29 can launch AGM-88 missiles flying Suppress Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) missions, it seems likely that other NATO missiles are now compatible with Ukraine's frontline fighter plane.

it also proves Ukrainian ground technicians are now handling NATO weapons, arming them, and connecting them to the hardpoint of airplanes. That raises new questions on how deeply they have been trained beyond weapons loading and handling.

3) On Monday, an ammunition depot in Russian-controlled Novooleksiivka exploded. The depot is located on a critical rail line from the Crimea Peninsula, and damage to that rail connection, even temporary damage, would be a setback for every Russian Ground Line of Communication in southern Ukraine and the Donbas. Novooleksiivka is 150 kilometers from the line of conflict and out of the range of any weapon system capable of causing an explosion that large that Ukraine is known to have. Russian ammunition storage and handling are known to be some of the worst in the world. It is quite possible, even likely, that the blast was caused by an accident. That was until this morning.

4) On Tuesday, the Saky air base in Russian-occupied Crimea had an accident. At least 12 explosions rocked the airfield, with dozens of videos appearing on social media. Novofedorivka is lined with beach resorts and hotels, which were full of Russian tourists at the time of the blasts. The airbase is 210 kilometers from the line of conflict.

The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the explosion, spreading fire, and additional explosions, claiming that an accident at the base caused some bombs to detonate. The MOD also said no aircraft were damaged in the blast, but videos from almost every angle and satellite imagery indicate it is unlikely that the Su-30, Su-24, and Il-76 aircraft at the base escaped unharmed.

Is it possible that Russia had two ammunition depot accidents in less than 24 hours? Yes, but it would be unusual, even for Russia. Did Ukraine get ATACMS from the United States? It is also possible, but there isn't any tangible evidence.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has been put into an impossible situation. If it was an ATACMS strike, will they admit it? Claiming that NATO has provided ATACMS to Ukraine would reveal that Russian air defenses couldn't protect critical assets in a war zone. The explosions were witnessed by thousands of Russian tourists, who are now flooding highways out of Crimea. This can't be explained away by propaganda at this point.

The optics alone that Ukraine has ATACMS based on the two explosions is a morale boost for the Ukrainian people, even if it isn't true. Even if it is proven these were just two bad accidents, it still provides a morale boost due to the perceived incompetence of the Russian military. 

It will be interesting to watch the next 24 to 48 hours to see if Russian forces have another -- accident -- far behind the line of conflict.