Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 10 AUG 2022 12:30 PDT - Saky Airbase Disaster
Added 2022-08-10 19:33:39 +0000 UTCWe assessed on August 9, 2022 that 20 to 25 aircraft were likely rendered inoperable at Saky Naval Airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea. The area was obscured by clouds this morning, which cleared out later in the day. it is the single largest aircraft loss of the war.
Based on the images currently being shared by social intelligence, we believe that not a single airplane or helicopter was left unscathed at Saky. The base is obliterated. The airplanes, the helicopters, the fuel depot, and four ammunition depots. There is significant damage, including to some of the taxiways and the flight line.
Aircraft that appear intact likely suffered deformities to their flight surfaces due to multiple shockwaves and shrapnel damage. Russia also had a spare parts issue, so repairing damaged aircraft will be problematic.
Ukrainian sources are claiming up to 60 military personnel, including pilots, were killed in the explosions, and another 100 were wounded. We can't verify the veracity of those reports, but the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that no one was killed are highly improbable.
Russia already has a shortage of pilots. There is no way to fast track fighter pilot training or take shortcuts on health requirements.
Losses include 10% of the entire Russian Su-30 fighter plane fleet and are somewhere between 40 to 50 airplanes and helicopters.
