Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 24 NOV 2022 18:30 PST - Summary Report

CHERNIHIV, SUMY, & KHARKIV

· Claims of fighting near Berestove [Kharkiv] by the Russian Ministry of Defense – we cannot confirm

· Ukraine reports shelling in Vilshana, which raises questions about the status of Lyman-Pershyi and if it is now liberated, but there is not enough data to change the map

· Scattered shelling on the border of Sumy was reported, with damage to a couple of homes in one hromada

LUHANSK

· Claims of fighting near Chevronopopvika and Ploschanka by the Russian Ministry of Defense

· The Russian milblogger Rybar specifically stated there was no fighting on the Svatove-Kreminna front – we will update the map tomorrow to show Poloschanka contested now that we have Ukrainian and Russian reports of fighting

· Luhansk Governor Serhei Haidai reported humanitarian aid had been delivered to liberated settlements with some villages under near-constant artillery fire

NE DONETSK

· Fighting in Bilhorivka [Donetsk], Soledar, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka

· Fighting is reported as "tactical," with Private Military Company Wagner Group continuing to suffer catastrophic losses - the videos and pictures we've seen are horrific

· Russian milblogger Rybar claims that Mayorsk is captured (recaptured?) – despite the single source report the town has not showed up in General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSAFU) artillery reports for two days, so we believe this is likely true

SW DONETSK

· Free Ukraine city of Toretsk hit by Russian missile strike destroying the Mir Kindergarten - the facility was unoccupied and no students were present

· Significant attempt to advance into Avdiivka by the 1st Army Corps of the DNR, no territory gained, and heavy losses suffered – we maintain that direct assaults on Avdiivka will only end in disaster

· Rybar claims Ukraine is pushing into Optyne northwest of the Donetsk International Airport in Vesele – we are glad we hedged our bets on the reports from GSAFU on November 23 and quesitioning which Optyne repelled a Russian attack

· Based on the mutual Russian and Ukrainian reports, we will adjust the map tomorrow and consider Optyne west of Donetsk contested

· Continued attempts to advance into Pervomaiske from the E-50 Ring Road on the Pisky border, DNR 1st Army Corps keeps attacking in the same place, the definition of insanity

· DNR Militia releases video of fighting near Nevelske with a huge problem – it is clearly a very old video with no mud or patches of snow, the video is authentic the claim that this represents recent fighting is false

· The city of Donetsk, particularly the western districts near the line of conflict, continued to be shelled

· Russian-occupied Makiivka hit by apparent rocket attack using HIMARS

· Water of Donbass reports that pumping station power has been restored, water service still disabled in Russian occupied city of Donetsk

· Continued fighting in Markinka - no change

· The Russian MOD reported continued fighting on the northern edge of Pavlivka - no change

· The Russian MOD reported that Ukraine attempted to advance from Vremivka, without evidence and Russian milblogger Rybar did not support claim

· Russia claims that port operations will restart in Bryansk and Mariupol in December, which is a weird announcement as limited operations have already been documented at both ports

ZAPORIZHIA-KHERSON

· Russia has started systematic destruction of the city of Kherson, targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, with 17 shellings reported today and videos of significant damage

· 7 people were killed and 21 wounded when an Invincibility Point was specifically targeted in Kherson

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack saying, "They do not know how to fight. The only thing they can still do is terrorize [us]. They resort to either energy terror, artillery terror, or missile terror; that's all that’s left of Russia under its current leaders."

· Residents in Kherson have been asked to make sure all electrical devices are unplugged as power restoration to housing is about to begin despite the increased attacks on the city

· Occupied Nova-Kakhovka shelled - large fire reported and no power

· Occupied Kakhovka shelled - large fires reported

· Multiple reports that Russian forces have withdrawn from Oleshky, but we cannot confirm this, and there have been repeated claims that Russia had previously withdrew

· Russia MOD claims there was fighting around Levadne in Zaporizhia with no evidence with Russian milblogger Rybar not supporting the claim

· External power has been reconnected to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

· Another hospital was damaged by a Russian attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia with dozens of windows blown out from the concussion

· Multiple loud explosions were recorded in the city of Zaporizhzhia in was appears to be a renewed attack.

· It is unclear if the blasts are air defense or successful Russian missile strikes; it is like a combination of both

· In another indication of Ukrainian will and engineering superiority, an S-300 missile that struck a main road in Zaporizhzhia on November 23, creating a 7-meter-deep crater and destroying the tarmac, has already been repaired and repaved

· Russian S-300 missile complex in Zeleny Yar in Zaporizhia is destroyed by HIMARS, three blasts were recorded followed by secondary explosions with rocket cook-off

· Russia increases filtration of civilians in Skadovsk

CRIMEA, BLACK SEA, MYKOLAIV, & ODESA

· External power has been reconnected to the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant in Mykolaiv oblast

· In Russian-occupied Crimea, pictures at Khrustalny beach in Sevastopol confirm a Ukrainian drone was shot down by Russian air defenses, crashed near a beach, and caused a localized fire on November 22

· Iranian State Media reporting ten "military advisors" killed in Crimea

·  it is a stunning revelation from the Iranian government and could be a sign that back-channel negotiations with Iran over the supply of drones to Russia and warnings from Israel not to supply missiles may have soured the will to provide weapons to Russia

· The news story comes out 24 hours after negotiations and technical discussions between Ukraine and Iran were announced by Russian and Western sources

CENTRAL & WESTERN UKRAINE

· External power has been reconnected to the Rvine and Khmelnytskyy Nuclear Power Plant

KYIV

· Power restoration efforts continue - about 30% of consumer customers restored and there are a lot of issues

RUSSIAN FRONT

· Russian milblogger Rybar reports that the border town of Shebenkino was shelled

· A mass shooting at a mall in Krymsk, Russia – reports claim 2 to 5 people were killed and the shooter, who lost custody case with ex-wife, died

THEATERHWIDE AND EXTERNAL

· 4,352 "Invincibility Centers" opened within 24 hours of Russia's missiles attack [Churchill would be impressed] - more are being opened - Ukrainian officials appeal to people that if they have been without heat/water to please go to a center to warm up, get a meal, have some social contact

· DTEK reports that electrical service has been restored to all critical infrastructure nationwide in free Ukraine, including hospitals, water services, cell towers, radio/TV/communications

· Attacks on November 23 appear to have been less effective in adding additional damage to electrical generation, which remains at 50% capacity

· Power restoration to homes continues

· Water service restoration is done, but it will take time to reestablish water pressure, and water may have iron, rust, and other sediments in it after restoration (this is normal if you've ever experienced a water outage)

· Areas with the worst water issues are Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Lviv, Poltava, and Kharkiv

· Areas with the worst electrical issues and unplanned blackouts are Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Khmelnytskyi

· IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi condemns Russian attacks on the power grid for endangering all four nuclear power plants in Ukraine, calling it "unprecedented" in a video

· IAEA has established advisor presence in all Ukraine nuclear power plants after Kyiv asked last week, and at the Chornobyl site

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an evening address, "Our guys are defending bravely. And there are directions in which we are preparing to move forward.”

· Serhei Haidai, Luhansk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, has repeatedly stated that when winter conditions arrive, Ukraine will increase offensive operations in the region - take that as you want

· Belarus has two to three brigades available in the southern part of the country which, in our assessment, is only a token force

· This has to be lost in translation, with Russian milblogger Rybar claiming 43 artillery BRIGADES have been deployed on the border of Belarus; we're not sure there are 43 artillery brigades in all of Europe, including Russia, so we believe they meant individual batteries

· Ukraine Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that Russian forces are replenishing losses with mobiks being introduced into experienced units with already poor unit cohesion further damaged and no time to prepare/train mobiks

· Other experienced units that have been "in country" since February are being replaced by mobik units on the front, and in our assessment, this will not end well

· The Associated Press is under fire as it is revealed that a reporter that claimed the missile strike on Poland was from Russia only took 10 minutes to verify the story from a single source, the 10-year veteran reporter was fired earlier this week

· Ukraine Intelligence reports indicate there are no signs that Russia is moving deadly chemical weapons into Ukraine

· The border crossing checkpoints with Romania and Hungary are not working because there is no electricity

RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION

· War Gonzo reports that most of the men in the BARS-13 Russia Legion (not to be confused with the Russia Imperial Legion or the Pro-Ukraine Russia Foreign Legion) have an average age over 40 with members 50+. They interviewed a man by the call sign of Mavro, who is 56 years old

· A graphic video shows a PMC Wagner mercenary commander by the call sign Cherdash, east of Bakhmut, wounded and in the mud, attempting to kill himself with his service weapon – a drone-dropped munition kills him

· Further confirming Semyon Pegov is a mercenary and not a journalist - Russian President Vladimir Putin awards him the Order of Courage for the loss of some toes

WAR CRIMES and HUMAN RIGHTS

· Russia and Ukraine did another POW exchange, 50 for 50 – 20 National Guardsmen, 12 seamen from the Navy, ten soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, six border guards, and two from the Tro were released

· The released prisoners included 19 defenders of Mariupol, 12 of whom were evacuated from Azovstal, 15 prisoners from the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, and seven from Snake Island

· The International Commission of Missing Persons reports 15,000 Ukrainian citizens are documented as missing - not including the forcible deported - the number of forcibly deported is 25,000 minimum in Mariupol alone

· Russian Minister of Defense says with a straight face that not a single strike was made on Kyiv on November 23 - take all the time you need

· Nine torture chambers have been uncovered in Kherson, and the deaths of 422 civilians have been documented by war crimes investigators

· Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Chief of the Wagner Group proposed to hand over a sledgehammer stained with fake blood and a tooth in a custom musical case to the European Parliament if his company is declared a terrorist organization

· We have documented in a July special report how members of the Russia Imperial Legion (not to be confused with the Pro-Ukrainian Russia Foreign Legion) had thousands of its members within the ranks of PMC Wagner Group

· Russia Imperial Legion was recognized as a terrorist group by the Trump Administration in April 2020

GEO POLITICS

· Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been made a honorary citizen of Kyiv

ECONOMIC

· Russia complaining about the ammonia pipeline and not being able to sell grain or fertilizer is false

· Russia agreed to terms and conditions as part of the Grain Shipping Initiative, and now they don't like the deal

· Ukrainian officials said they would not renegotiate changes, and the issue is between Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations, who brokered and administered the deal

· We will point out again that the pipeline that goes to Odesa cannot operate without electrical power to run compressors – take all the time you need

· Austria reported they have cut Russian natural gas imports by more than 2/3 in less than 7 months and gas storage for the winter is at 96%

· United States equity markets and banks are closed for a federal holiday