Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 14 SEP 2022 15:45 PDT - All These Dam Questions

Earlier today, up to eight cruise missiles hit the hydroelectric dam in Kryvyi Rih, damaging the public water system, some electrical infrastructure, the spillway, and the dam itself.

Parts of Kryvyi Rih are flooding, and there are some evacuations. The dam holds back the water on the Inhulets River, and there is rampant speculation on what Russia is/was trying to do.

Theory one: Russia is destroying Ukrainian infrastructure in the weeks ahead of winter. That checks the box and fits their military strategy and doctrine. Russia has consistently targeted civilian infrastructure as part of its tactics since the first Chechnya War. You'd think after seven months they would have figured out this only makes Ukraine fight back harder, but nope - here we are. Even in the 80s piece of Hollywood slop called Red Dawn, they figured out civilian retributions didn't work. On second thought, Red Dawn is starting to look like a very accurate portrayal of what a Russian invasion of the United States would look like - but I digress. 

Theory two: Flood the Inhulets to destroy the Ukrainian wet crossing on the bridgehead, cut them off, and finish them. The increased flow will likely wipe out the existing wet crossings, but Ukrainian engineers have time to make changes. It will take time for the water to reach those areas. If that's the plan, it was incredibly short-sighted because this will also destroy the Russian wet crossing on the Inhulets further south (after the Ukrainian ones are hit) and could complicate or end for a short period ongoing attempts to cross at Darivka, which is a thread of a lifeline to Kherson city. 

They can't be that short-sighted? Well, they tried to collapse Ukraine's electrical grid and didn't plan for the fact that it would take out power in Russia and Russian-occupied Donetsk too.

These are complicated questions because it requires understanding average stream flows, historic peaks and lows, and analysis of the terrain. Living in two areas in my life that frequently flooded, I can give you my University of Google evaluation.

The areas impacted by the rush of water will be short-term. River levels will start to rise, rise quickly, crest, and then drop, this process could be measured in hours or days, but it won't be in months.

The land is relatively dry right now - we aren't in mud season. However, it has rained, so the soil isn't baked. That's a good thing because the soils can absorb some of the water as you go further downstream. This would have been more catastrophic had mud season started.

The stream flow rates will be more moderate as you move downstream. This helps Russia somewhat.

Longer term, this was a bad move for Russia, just as we saw in Severodonetsk. In early March, Ukraine blew a dam north of Oskil to slow the Russian advance toward Izyum. It worked briefly, but it then resulted in lower river levels on the Siverskyi Donets in the spring. Russia was unable to capitalize on this because they have no capacity to make successful wet crossings. Despite multiple attempted crossings in May, they all turned into disasters after NATO M777 artillery arrived on the front in the nick of time. The disastrous crossing at Bilohorivka was one of the first dominos to fall on the broader Russian offensive operations.

Ukraine was able to capitalize on the lower levels in June They evacuated Severodonetsk under the noses of the Russians by crossing the reduced-level Siveskyi Donets in small boats and wading across. Because of the terrain on the bank to the west of Severodonetsk, Russian troops made the wise decision (not snark) not to follow aggressively. It would have been a repeated disaster due to the terrain.

If Russia was attempting option one - this is considered a war crime under the Geneva Convention Article 56. The only reason I know that right off the top of my head is it is the same article that covers nuclear power plants and other electrical infrastructure. I read all 76 pages of an analysis of Article 56 to understand what is and isn't allowed to defend and occupy nuclear power plants (and curiosity if the Geneva Convention even considered it). After World War II, belligerent attacks on dams became off-limits. Both the Axis and Allies targeted dams resulting in thousands of deaths. Yes, defenders can destroy their own dams if they are left with no other options.

If Russia was attempting option two - this represents a short-term gain for longer-term problems and may impact their own river crossings. Ukraine has an alternate path to the bridgehead from the north, they don't need to cross the Siverskyi Donets anymore. It is possible but doubtful that Russia has attempted to seize the initiative in northern Kherson, has anticipated a Ukrainian advance in response, and is prepared. They just haven't demonstrated these types of capabilities.

A sub-theory is that this has nothing to do with a looming Russian counteroffensive. This was done to stem the tide of advancing Ukrainian troops so Russian forces could withdraw from smaller villages in northern Kherson that are becoming increasingly difficult to defend due to losses, equipment wearing out, and supply issues. If that was their plan - two b - that's a solid plan. It would 100% achieve that and would force Ukraine to hold its current positions before advancing into abandoned positions. This buys Russia time to move artillery and reset defenses.

Pro-Russian claims that the Russian Air Force is now endlessly attacking Ukrainian positions in the Inhulets River bridgehead is likely a Kremlin fantasy. As we learned in Kharkiv, Russia doesn't even hold air dominance, and most attacks are done with non-precision weapons at a standoff distance. Ukraine did almost two months of SEAD/DEAD to prepare for this counteroffensive, and it has clearly paid off dividends. If the Russian Air Force had been blasting Ukrainian units to bits for the last six weeks, don't you think we would be seeing an endless supply of videos?

In other news, Ukraine secured two more towns in Kherson - both of them critical, but you'll need to wait for the Situation Report for that info.