Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 15 SEP 2022 11:45 PDT - All Quiet on the Western Front
Added 2022-09-15 18:44:50 +0000 UTCSomething is up. There have been almost no ground attacks by Russian troops theaterwide in the past 12 hours - including Soledar/Bakhmut. West of Donetsk, even artillery has quieted down.
This is not to say there aren't positional battles going on, recon, etc. - but it is extremely quiet, including artillery.
There remain a lot of complaints from the Russian side that the Kremlin has been too quiet and Russian leaders within Ukraine lack direction and orders. We also hear about supply issues for ammunition theaterwide. This is a bit odd considering the mountains of ammunition that were discovered in Kharkiv while the Izyum front was literally begging for supplies. It appears Russian logistics has fallen apart, versus we're running out of things that go boom.
DNR and LNR are desperately trying to mobile people for the front, but without equipment and a longer training program than the Ukrainians are getting (five weeks) they won't provide any impact. We are hearing more and more about LNR conscripts, in particular, being sent to the front Soviet 1942 desperation days style. No weapon - find one off a dead person.
Trying to understand why things are so quiet on the Russian side. There have been a lot of troop movements and paranoia about imminent attacks in the information space, so it just may be command and control are paralyzed.
There is no logical reason for Russia to enter an operational pause right now. If anything, this is what they should have done back in early July after seizing Luhansk. If Russia is giving up on Soledar/Bakhmut, it would be the first logical decision they've made since mid-April.
