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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 27 OCT 2022 23:59* PDT - Winter is Coming

Added 2022-10-28 10:24:34 +0000 UTC

Today's report is 50 pages.

What's the big story? Both belligerents are reporting mud has become a significant problem on the battlefield - winter is coming to Ukraine.

The second story? Big update on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and Putin goes on a four-hour rant about the West, liberalism, Satan, cancel culture, and how everything is still going perfectly as planned..

If you missed our podcast on Sunday, you should listen to our interview with the voice of United24, journalist, and educator, Yewleea. We discussed Ukrainian history and her interviews with Azov defenders, including Tork and Aiden Aslin.

The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available at:

If you want to watch the entire interview with Avoz defender and former POW Tork, you can see it on YouTube.

Malcontent News cannot operate without your support, and we sincerely appreciate your generosity. Maybe share the report with a friend - if each Patreon brought in one more subscriber - ahhh - a Chief Content Officer can dream.

Thank you for supporting independent journalism and for being a Malcontent.

Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 27 OCT 2022 23:59* PDT - Winter is Coming

Comments

You didn’t address my question about October 15th sit rep report which I directly quoted. Thank you for your reply.

2022-10-29 16:06:13 +0000 UTC

Thank you for the reply, I do appreciate your time to clear things up. I believe there were moments in the situation reports and on the podcast I vividly recall hearing Linnea saying “and it is likely that either the Kremmina Svatove GLOC Or that the villages themselves would fall prior to the end of this month (October)”. If this was never said and I’m wrong, I will take the humble pie slice and eat it for dinner, and leftovers tomorrow. I love the content and my general rule with this conflict is if I don’t hear it here it didn’t happen. Thanks for trying to be accurate and for the job well done - after all the truth matters.

2022-10-29 01:06:54 +0000 UTC

Well, you got us there because we never made any such assessment or evaluation. On October 1, our analysis for Luhansk was: "ASSESSMENT: We believe that Ukraine will continue to advance rapidly and that Russian forces will struggle to establish a new line of defense. The next line will likely run from Svatove to Kreminna to Severodonetsk to Zolote if Russian forces can stabilize the situation or pull in viable reserves. The untrained mobiks Russia is set to deploy in the coming week will do little more than slow a Ukrainian advance. If Russian forces can’t hold Kreminna, the following line of defense would fall back to Starobilsk. Ukrainian forces are unwinding Russia’s advance from March to July. In our assessment, the capture of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk will be a priority. From Lysychansk, Ukrainian forces don’t have to cross to Siverskyi Donets to advance toward Hirske-Zolote and Popasna. Holding Severodonetsk enables Ukraine to establish fire control over a wide area." I would say that it is spot on and 100% accurate. Wagner Group is literally building a defensive line from Zolote to Lysychansk to Kreminna. We missed Svatove, but the Russians are defending; they just aren't building their low-budget Siegfred line there. Russians are struggling to hold this line, with Ukraine making steady gains through the month and, as of today, bringing the P-66 Highway between Svatove and Kreminna under full fire control, per GSAFU and multiple Russian sources. We did not echo the bigger claims that Ukraine had advanced to the P-66 Highway (that other sources did) because we were skeptical and correct. The untrained mobiks have served to slow down the advance but not stop it. We set no time table for the liberation of Kreminna and Svatove and have repeatedly stated Ukraine will not attack either town head-on and will move to encircle. On October 3, we wrote: "There were reports that Russian officials ordered the evacuation of civilians from Svatove less than a month after Russian collaborators fled Kharkiv to the city in the Luhansk oblast. Svatove could be described as being in a very loose encirclement. Ukrainian forces now control three GLOCs to the city from the northwest, west, and south. They remain about 30 kilometers away in all directions, which puts the city within the range of MLRS." That was also correct. On October 7, we wrote: "Russian forces continue to set up defensive lines and reinforce the towns of Svatove and Kreminna while readily admitting that both towns will likely be bypassed and surrounded. Pro-Russian sources reported there was a HIMARS strike in Rubizhne. Russian sources report that the situation in Kreminna remains calm. There are unverified reports of fighting south of the town that we can’t verify." We noted on October 3, that Ukraine had pulled within range of MLRS (yes, HIMARS is GMLRS), and on October 7, they started to use their long hand. On October 11, we wrote: "ASSESSMENT: We don’t know how effective these defensive will be. Military history has repeatedly shown that static defenses are ineffective against maneuver warfare. The linear trenches will be a liability for light infantry. Military planners gave up on straight trench design in the opening months of World War I. Finally, it is highly unlikely Ukraine will attack Svatove head-on and will likely repeat its strategy of creating a technical encirclement, avoiding urban combat, and forcing a Russian retreat to prevent capture." This remains correct, with no signs that Ukraine intended to attack Svatove head-on. Today Ukrainian forces are about 10 kilometers from Svatove, and that may be conservative. Russian sources claim they are even closer. With the GLOC between Kreminna and Svatove severed, Russian military commanders will have some tough decisions to make. In 25 days, Ukrainian forces have advanced 20 kilometers toward Svatove in two directions and 18 kilometers in a third - almost a kilometer a day. In contrast, the Russian military, which is combat destroyed, has advanced about -2 kilometers on the only front they are holding an offensive, Bakhmut-Soledar. The truth matters,

2022-10-29 00:56:44 +0000 UTC

The Russian military in Ukraine remains combat destroyed - we remove points that are repeated from time to time off the assessment because it is established. We changed the wording slightly in yesterday's report to acknowledge that the Russian military in Ukraine is combat destroyed and is incapable of anything beyond holding defensive lines and localized small offensives of a company size or smaller.

2022-10-29 00:33:46 +0000 UTC

Also their assessment that Kremmina and Svatove will be in UA hands by the end of October also very likely to be incorrect.

2022-10-28 18:37:08 +0000 UTC

Because it is no longer accurate lol

2022-10-28 18:36:36 +0000 UTC

I noticed that you took the following assessment out of your sit rep reports, but I don't recall seeing a reason why or even if you changed your assessment. Can you address this or point me to the report where you discussed this? "7. We maintain our assessment that the Russian military in Ukraine is combat destroyed is accurate, and the Russian military has no meaningful way to respond to the ongoing and accelerating collapse on multiple fronts." 10/15/2022

2022-10-28 17:29:55 +0000 UTC

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