Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 29 OCT 2022 09:45 PDT - Black Sea Fleet Attack Update I

This is what we know.

Videos have been released by Ukrainian officials of at least one of the unmanned remotely operated vessels striking an Admiral Grigorovich class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet. We cannot verify if it was Admiral Essen or Admiral Makarov. The Makarov is the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet and replaced the Moskva after it was sunk by Neptune antiship missiles in April.

A second USV strikes another ship, and a third narrowly missiles a small patrol boat, with a Russian sailor jumping into the ocean caught on video. It is unconfirmed but possible that both Grigorovich class missile frigates were hit.

You can watch the videos here.

The Russian Ministry of Defense denied the attack happened, then reported it successfully destroyed all drones, then reported at least two vessels with "slight" damage, and then announced it was suspending Ukrainian grain shipments because the attack targeted Russian escort vessels. Occupation officials in Sevastopol announced that public access to CCTV cameras for the port and city is being turned off indefinitely.

We have had a lot of new subscribers since the Moskva was sunk. Here is what our contact is telling us this AM:

1 mine sweeper "badly" damaged, and 2 to 3 more vessels with minor to moderate damage but as of a few hours ago, no vessels sunk. Russian state media has said a mine sweeper received "slight" damage (which indicates it is almost certainly worse than reported) and there are multiple reports that the radar dome of Admiral Makarov was damaged by shrapnel - so the damage is also likely worse than reported. We have seen this failure to get the story straight and control the narrative repeatedly as the Kremlin struggles to avoid the truth.

That's what we know.

In our assessment, expect a massive response against civilians and civilian infrastructure, likely targeting grain exports and the electrical grid within the next seven days. If the reprisal attack doesn't happen within the next 48 hours, consider that a sign that the Russian military is struggling to maintain a supply of stand-off weapons.